FXUS62 KTBW 190009 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 809 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hazardous marine conditions continue through Thursday. - Critically low relative humidity values over the Nature Coast for elevated fire concerns through the week. .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) SCT-BKN strato cu field AOA 04k ft expected to remain over SW FL terminals associated with overrunning of a stalled frontal boundary in the FL Straits tonight. Patchy area of cirrus clouds moving over the Gulf and N FL tonight with VFR conditions through the forecast period. A fluctuating gradient will produce occasionaly gusty NNE winds tonight and Thursday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 An upper-level trough remains over the eastern half of the country this afternoon while surface high pressure sits over the southeast. The trough will shift over the Atlantic over the next few days, with a couple of shortwaves moving over the region tonight and Thursday night. The surface high will eventually settle over the state and remain there into early next week before another boundary approaches on Tuesday. We will see a gradual moderating trend through the weekend and into next week, with temperatures back near normal for the end of the week and increasing to above normal for the weekend and next week. Rain chances remain out of the forecast until a slight chance comes into play for the middle of next week. && && .MARINE... Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Exercise Caution conditions will continue into Thursday for the central and southern waters with the breezy north to northeast flow persisting. Winds will diminish late in the week through the weekend as high pressure settles over the area with no further headlines expected. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 A relatively dry air mass will remain over the region for the next several days, with relative humidity values dropping to critical levels for the Nature Coast Thursday and Friday afternoons. However, no Red Flag issues are expected as sustained 20 foot winds remain less than 15 mph and the Significant Fire Potential is low. No significant fog is expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 51 75 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 FMY 54 79 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 GIF 51 75 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 SRQ 50 77 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 BKV 44 75 44 79 / 0 0 0 0 SPG 56 76 60 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt/Barron