FXUS62 KTBW 070735 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Today will be the last day of this stretch of hot weather before a major airmass change happens tonight. Surface high pressure ridging across Florida from the Atlantic is keeping broad subsidence in place with afternoon highs expected to top out into the mid 80s to low 90s this afternoon. In the upper levels, a potent trough will dig into the southeastern US today, pulling a cold front across the central Gulf. This will tighten up the pressure gradient and lead to some breezy winds, which will setup a high risk of rip currents along area beaches today and Tuesday. Southerly and southwesterly low level flow ahead of the front will cause pooling moisture and allow showers and storms to develop just ahead of the frontal passage, moving into the Nature Coast late this afternoon and early evening. A few strong or damaging storms will be possible over the Nature Coast, but the upper level support will quickly dissolve as the system moves south towards the Tampa Bay and southwest Florida overnight and into Tuesday morning. That said, the entire forecast area will see at least 50-60 percent chances of getting at least a little rain out of the system. Behind the front, temperatures will drop significantly Monday night and Tuesday under strong cold air advection, with Tuesday afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures will warm back up a little Wednesday through Friday as high pressure builds in, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The next trough will swing into the southeastern US on Friday, bringing a cold front into the forecast area Friday night and Saturday. Global models continue to hint that there could be some rain chances along this frontal boundary, but there is not enough model consensus to result in notable mentions of rain in the NBM just yet. Regardless, the front will drop temperatures a few degrees again to start the weekend. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Patchy VFR ceilings early this morning will lift out after sunrise, with breezy south and southwest winds picking up ahead of the approaching cold front. Showers and storms will push southeast through the Tampa Bay area terminals late this afternoon and evening, with MVFR/IFR ceilings expected with the frontal passage. && .MARINE... Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 High pressure ridging into the eastern Gulf today will shift east ahead of an approaching cold front that will push southeast through the waters tonight and Tuesday. Winds will increase to Small Craft Exercise Caution or perhaps Small Craft Advisory levels later today, then will subside by Tuesday morning as high pressure starts to build in behind the front and holds through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 335 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Higher humidity is expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. Breezy winds will lead to high dispersion indices. The front will push through the Florida Peninsula tonight and Tuesday, bringing chances of showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 87 67 74 61 / 20 60 40 0 FMY 87 71 79 61 / 0 50 60 20 GIF 90 65 76 59 / 10 50 50 10 SRQ 86 67 75 61 / 10 60 50 10 BKV 89 60 74 53 / 40 70 30 0 SPG 84 68 72 63 / 20 60 40 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk from 8 AM EDT this morning through Tuesday evening for Coastal Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Fleming