FXUS62 KTBW 070053 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 853 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Deepening southerly flow continues to increase surface dewpoints, mean layer moisture and instability. Today's late afternoon seabreeze collision even produced some light low topped showers over the Lake Wales Ridge into this evening. Another warm and humid night expected locally as the persistant upper longwave trough from Hudson Bay down through the Plains states and into Mexico has started to slowly move eastward pushing the complex system storm system through the North Gulf Coast and the Deep South tonight. Latest grids and forecasts on track. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) VFR conditions continue as gusty SW winds will subside and veer SE shortly. Monday after 13z gusty S-SW winds returning with afternoon SCT LCL BKN clouds AOA 04k ft. Models suggest early ISOLD SHRA may develop well ahead of the approaching cold front and have introduced in the TPA TAF before SHRA likely and ISOLD TSRA Monday night into Tuesday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Quiet and warm conditions continue through the remainder of the day as the axis for a surface high over the Atlantic extends over Florida. However, not far to the west a trough continues to dig into the southeastern US dragging along a cold front. This cold front will continue to move east towards FL, likely arriving Monday evening/Tuesday morning. Showers and storms will move over the area ahead of the front beginning tomorrow evening and continuing overnight. Some storms could be strong. SPC has placed portions of the nature coast in a moderate risk (1 of 5) for severe storms and a slight risk (2 of 5) for portions of Levy County. Main concern will be damaging winds, small hail, and heavy rainfall. The line of storms will quickly lose energy as it moves over FL, and will likely transition to mostly rain showers as it moves south of Tampa Bay area. Behind the front, a much drier air place will settle in dropping temperatures and dew points for a couple of days. High pressure will build back in Tuesday, allowing temperatures to warm up by Wednesday. However, highs should remain in the 80s through the rest of the week. Another cold front is expected to move through Saturday bringing another shot at cooler air. && .MARINE... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Less than ideal marine conditions through the next couple days as a frontal boundary moves over the waters tomorrow into Tuesday. Gusty winds today have led to some Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions, with a Small Craft Advisory likely for Monday afternoon. Rip current risk will also be elevated Monday through Wednesday as stronger winds persist into the week. conditions improve a little by the end of the week, however another cold front expected next Saturday, which will likely increase winds again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 236 PM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025 Main fire concern for the remainder of today will be high dispersions as strong, gusty winds continue. A cold front moves over the area tomorrow night/Tuesday morning bringing a line of showers and storms. A dry air mass will move over the region Tuesday dropping RH values close to critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 73 85 66 74 / 0 30 70 20 FMY 71 87 70 79 / 0 0 60 70 GIF 69 90 64 76 / 0 10 70 40 SRQ 72 86 67 75 / 0 20 70 40 BKV 66 89 59 74 / 0 40 70 10 SPG 74 83 67 74 / 0 30 70 30 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Hurt UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Hurt