FXUS62 KTBW 031834

AFDTBW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL

134 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- After a cold start this morning, a warm up expected Tuesday 

  afternoon through Wednesday.



- Next cold front brings rain late Wednesday into Thursday.



- Hazardous marine conditions expected on Thursday.



- Next shot of freezing temperatures on Friday morning.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



High pressure directly over the state is giving us light winds and 

clear skies allowing for temperatures to finally get back into 60

for the first time in 3 to 4 days. Temperatures will dip quickly 

overnight but still be a little warmer with areas south of I-4 in 

the low 40's and north of I-4 in the mid to upper 30's. RHs will 

be approaching 100 percent by morning along the Nature Coast and 

with temperatures in the mid 30's a frost advisory has been issued

for the area. 



Another strong cold front will start to push through the southeast 

but ahead of it we will see warming temperatures with highs 

getting back in the 70's for most of us in the afternoon. The 

front will be pushing through overnight bringing scattered showers

to the area. Behind the front cold air will dive back into the 

state once again with temperatures dropping Thursday afternoon. 

This front will not bring the historical cold we saw during the 

weekend but lows will dip into the mid to upper 30's Friday 

morning with highs struggling to get into the 60's. 



By the weekend high pressure settles back in and high temperatures 

rebound back into the 70's once again. Looking at early next week a 

front will stall just north of Florida which will result in 

temperatures slowly increasing Monday and Tuesday. 





&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



VFR conditions with light winds for the rest of the day. Winds

will shift southerly starting tomorrow in response to a front

approaching the area. 



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



Wind are light out of the east as high pressure sites over 

the state. The high pressure will move away in response to a cold 

front that will start to push through the southeast. This will shift 

winds to the south from 5 to 10 mph on Wednesday. The front will 

push through Wednesday night with winds quickly increasing and 

shift to the northwest. By Thursday morning we will see winds 20 

to 25 knots with gust up to 30 mph. A small craft advisory will be

likely throughout the day on Thursday. Winds will drop on Friday 

but will on the higher side around 15 to 20 knots before dropping 

to 10 to 15 knots on Saturday. 





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...

Issued at 130 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026



RHs will be on the rise Wednesday as a cold front approaches 

the area. This front will push through Wednesday night bringing 

scattered showers across the area. RHs will stay above critical 

level on Thursday but drier air will start to filter in by Friday. 

We will see critical RHs for Friday and the weekend but winds should 

remain below critical levels for a red flag warning.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TPA  64  45  70  51 /   0   0   0  70 

FMY  68  46  73  54 /   0   0   0  30 

GIF  65  43  73  50 /   0   0   0  60 

SRQ  65  43  70  53 /   0   0   0  70 

BKV  65  33  72  44 /   0   0   0  80 

SPG  64  50  68  55 /   0   0   0  80 



&&



.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland Citrus-

     Inland Hernando-Inland Levy-Sumter.



Gulf waters...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley

DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce

UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce