FXUS62 KTAE 211300 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 900 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 859 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Severe to exceptional drought will continue or worsen with little to no rainfall and a warming trend over the next week. - Haze and smoke may present issues for those with sensitive respiratory conditions over the next day or so due to prescribed burns and wildfires. Late afternoon and evening hours may feature the poorest air quality. - Warm and fair weather will make beaches attractive. Be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they mean with respect to rip currents if visiting. && .UPDATE... Issued at 859 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Current forecast on track. See the Short Term section for detais. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 221 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Warm and dry conditions will continue with haze and smoke from several prescribed burns and wildfires. Air quality may be degraded at times. For those who have respiratory conditions, use caution if you need to be outdoors when smoke is present. Afternoon highs will generally be in the lower 80s, except mid 70s along the beaches. Overnight lows will generally be in the mid 50s, except near 60 along the beaches. Patchy fog is expected late tonight into early Sunday morning for the southern half of the area as low level moisture increases from southwest surface winds. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 221 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Mainly dry weather is expected to continue with worsening drought conditions. Although upper level ridging will flatten somewhat across the western states, there do not appear to be any significant rain makers on the way for us with shortwaves moving across the Great Lakes. Little in the way of Gulf moisture return is expected. A mainly dry cold front is expected to move through during the middle of the week with rain chances 20 percent or less. This front will temporarily knock temperatures down a few degrees, but a warming trend is expected again for the end of the week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 VFR conditions generally prevail with light to moderate west to southwesterly breezes. Ongoing fires across the region may lead to lower visibility, especially at KTLH where several fires continue southwest of the TAF site. && .MARINE... Issued at 221 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Gentle westerly to southwesterly breezes are expected through this weekend as high pressure slides south of our area. Breezes become more moderate Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front. Winds behind the front Monday night into Tuesday will shift out of the northwest to north and remain moderate, then become more easterly late Tuesday into mid week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 221 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 West to southwest transport winds of 10-15 mph will continue through Monday, turning northwesterly over AL and GA zones Monday afternoon behind a cold front. This combined with high mixing heights will lead to high dispersions across inland areas through the next several days. Winds tonight will become light and variable, which may lead to smoke settling overnight. RH will be mainly above critical levels through the next 3 days, though some localized spots may get close to the critical thresholds this afternoon. No wetting rains are expected through Monday. Patchy fog will be a concern tonight as moisture increases. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 221 AM EDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Little to no rain is forecast for the next 7 days. Drought remains our only hydrologic concern. Severe to exceptional drought continues for most of the area. For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 61 76 62 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 82 55 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 54 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 83 54 86 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 80 53 81 56 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 74 60 73 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Reese MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD