FXUS62 KTAE 201715 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 115 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 - Severe to exceptional drought will continue or worsen with no rainfall and a warming trend over the next week. - Warm and fair weather will make beaches attractive. Be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they mean with respect for rip currents if visiting. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Northwesterly upper level flow around record breaking upper level ridging across the southwest states along with troughing along the east coast will keep us dry. At the surface, high pressure will prevail across our region with mostly clear skies. Afternoon highs will generally range from the mid to upper 70s with overnight lows ranging from the mid 40s across the southeast big bend to the upper 50s along the panhandle beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Dry weather is expected to continue with worsening drought conditions. Although upper level ridging will flatten somewhat across the western states, there do not appear to be any significant rain makers on the way for us with shortwaves moving across the Great Lakes. Little in the way of Gulf moisture return is expected. A weak cold front is expected to move through during the middle of the week, which may knock temperatures back a few degrees, but little to no rainfall is currently expected. Highs remain mostly in the 80s and lows stay in the 50s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 114 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Light winds and VFR conditions are expected through the period outside of some transient wildfire smoke. && .MARINE... Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Gentle northeasterly breezes will become westerly to southwesterly today as high pressure slides south of our area. Breezes become more moderate Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front. Winds behind the front Monday night into Tuesday will shift out of the northwest to north and remain moderate. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Near critical RH values are expected again this afternoon, mainly across the Florida Big Bend into south central Georgia. Light north to northeast winds today will become more southwesterly in the afternoon as the afternoon sea breeze moves inland. High mixing heights will generally lead to fair to good dispersions this afternoon. Over the weekend, dispersions become high across inland areas as westerly to southwesterly flow strengthens and mixing heights remain high. Daily afternoon sea breezes will enhance the southwesterly winds near and south of I-10. This flow will also aid in increasing moisture, keeping RH values above critical levels this weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 237 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Little to no rain is forecast for the next 7 days. Drought remains our only hydrologic concern. Severe to extreme drought continues for most of the area. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor now has a swath of Exceptional Drought across the southern row of Georgia counties from Grady County eastward and into the upper Suwannee Basin. For more information on local drought impacts, visit www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 51 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 75 62 76 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan51 82 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 50 82 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 49 82 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 46 80 54 80 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 56 73 61 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM....DVD AVIATION...Merrifield MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD