FXUS62 KTAE 190524 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 124 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - One more day of critically low relative humidity fosters elevated fire concerns on Thursday. - Severe to extreme drought likely to continue with no rainfall and a warming trend over the next 5 to 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Thursday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Surface high pressure axis will extend from northeast to southwest through the region tonight and into Thursday as it slowly shifts east. While temperatures shouldn't be as cool as last night, lighter winds and mostly clear skies should still allow a good radiational cooling pattern to develop. Forecast lows will be in the mid to upper 30s, with lows near 40 along the coast. With the lighter winds and clear skies we can't rule out patchy frost across the area overnight as well. The warm up trend continues into Thursday with light northeast winds becoming somewhat variable through the day as the high pressure axis drifts east. Temperatures will be about 10 degrees warmer than Wednesday and in the low 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Surface high pressure drifts southeast through the weekend and into early next week while the upper level pattern generally remains steadily out of the northwest. This will lead to a continued quiet stretch of dry and warm weather into the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will likely warm into the mid 80s by Saturday/Sunday and into the upper 80s by early next week. Main concerns will primarily be elevated fire danger given long- term drought and dry afternoons. Winds will become westerly over the weekend and early next week and this should keep critical fire weather concerns from developing. By the middle of next week a backdoor cold front could move in from the northeast but any significant precipitation from this front is not expected. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 VFR conditions prevail throughout the TAF period. && .MARINE... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Moderate northeast breezes prevail the next couple days. Surface high pressure settling into the Gulf fosters gentle northerly breezes this Friday with afternoon seabreezes making for an onshore flow along the nearshore legs through. Gentle westerly breezes then overtake the waters this weekend. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 The only fire concerns are near to critically low relative humidity on Thursday. Thankfully, northeast winds should be on the lighter side. Dry weather is expected with a steady warming trend through this weekend. Surface high pressure over the northern Gulf brings variable or westerly winds Friday with steadily increasing west and southwesterly flow through the weekend and into early next week. Dispersions will begin to increase over the weekend as well. A very low chance of rain is possible next week but forecast amounts appear low and will likely not amount to a wetting rain. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 213 PM EDT Wed Mar 18 2026 No rainfall is expected through the next few days across the area and hydrology concerns will be minimal. The next chances don't arrive until early next week from a backdoor front. Severe to extreme drought is likely to continue. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 71 43 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 70 49 74 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 71 45 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 70 43 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 43 77 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 72 41 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 67 51 70 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ120>131- 142>148-155-156-161. AL...Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Dobbs LONG TERM....Dobbs AVIATION...Oliver MARINE...Dobbs FIRE WEATHER...Dobbs HYDROLOGY...Dobbs