FXUS62 KTAE 050000 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 800 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 749 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 - The next opportunity for rain arrives Thursday thanks to another cold front approaching the region. && .UPDATE... Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 The weather is quiet and the forecast is on track. No forecast updates are forthcoming this evening. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 The main target of opportunity in the forecast is the next cold frontal approach and passage on Thursday into Friday with gusty pre-frontal winds and strong to isolated severe storms possible. Prior to that, a dry period of weather with temperatures warming to above average into the middle of the week. On Thursday, seasonably high shear and surface instability is modeled ahead of the cold front. The unidirectional wind field suggests the potential for a stronger storm or two capable or producing damaging wind gusts, mainly Northwest of the FL Big Bend. Models continue to depict mixing to around 925 hPa, where winds approach 30 mph, so that value is a ceiling for non-thunderstorm wind gusts on Thursday. Shower chances linger into the weekend, with PoPs likely to be further fine tuned due to the uncertainty in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. Winds will favor southerly directions at under 10 knots, except stronger in the Tuesday afternoon seabreeze at ECP. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Light to moderate southerly winds develop later tonight and last through at least Wednesday before turning more southwesterly Thursday ahead of another cold front along with a few showers and storms Thursday into Friday. While winds are expected to remain well below advisory thresholds, seas will approach 3 feet on Thursday and Friday, with locally higher winds and seas possible near any thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Southerly winds return Tuesday as MinRH recovers around or above 40 percent Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Increasing southerly transport winds will lead to high dispersions Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly clear and dry through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with the next chance of wetting rains by Thursday with the next cold frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Flooding is not expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 56 85 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 80 67 83 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 52 83 61 87 / 0 0 0 10 Albany 54 84 60 90 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 56 86 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 58 87 61 89 / 0 10 0 0 Apalachicola 61 77 67 80 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Haner MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF