FXUS62 KTAE 042003 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 403 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 - The next opportunity for rain arrives Thursday thanks to another cold front approaching the region. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Sunday) Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 The main target of opportunity in the forecast is the next cold frontal approach and passage on Thursday into Friday with gusty pre-frontal winds and strong to isolated severe storms possible. Prior to that, a dry period of weather with temperatures warming to above average into the middle of the week. On Thursday, seasonably high shear and surface instability is modeled ahead of the cold front. The unidirectional wind field suggests the potential for a stronger storm or two capable or producing damaging wind gusts, mainly Northwest of the FL Big Bend. Models continue to depict mixing to around 925 hPa, where winds approach 30 mph, so that value is a ceiling for non-thunderstorm wind gusts on Thursday. Shower chances linger into the weekend, with PoPs likely to be further fine tuned due to the uncertainty in the forecast. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 VFR conditions with light winds should prevail through the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Light to moderate southerly winds develop later tonight and last through at least Wednesday before turning more southwesterly Thursday ahead of another cold front along with a few showers and storms Thursday into Friday. While winds are expected to remain well below advisory thresholds, seas will approach 3 feet on Thursday and Friday, with locally higher winds and seas possible near any thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Southerly winds return Tuesday as MinRH recovers around or above 40 percent Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. Increasing southerly Transport winds will lead to high dispersions Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly clear and dry through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with the next chance of wetting rains by Thursday with the next cold frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 350 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026 Flooding is not expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 82 56 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 79 58 80 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 79 52 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 80 54 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 82 56 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 85 58 87 61 / 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 76 61 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...Dobbs MARINE...LF FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF