FXUS62 KTAE 040521 AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 121 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 - The next opportunity for rain arrives Wednesday night into Thursday thanks to another cold front approaching the area. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Saturday) Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 The main target of opportunity in the forecast is the next cold frontal approach and passage on late Thursday into Thursday night with gusty pre-frontal winds and strong to isolated severe storms possible. Prior to that, a dry period of weather w/ temperatures warming to above average into the middle of the week, and cannot rule out an isolated shower/storm Northwest of the FL Big Bend on Wednesday afternoon. Also, another cool morning with lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s away from the Gulf Coast on Monday. On Thursday, seasonably high shear and surface instability is modeled ahead of the cold front. The question will be timing and if storms make it southeast into the region. The unidirectional wind field suggests isolated damaging wind gusts with any storms that make it, mainly Northwest of the FL Big Bend. It is still uncertain if the rainfall axis also makes it southeast. Models also depict mixing to around 925 hPa, where winds approach 30 mph, so that value is a ceiling for non-thunderstorm wind gusts. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 120 AM EDT Mon May 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with mostly clear skies. && .MARINE... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 High pressure over the coastal waters through Monday with light and variable winds becoming onshore during the late morning through evening hours with the seabreeze. Southerly flow becomes established on Tuesday and Wednesday well ahead of the next cold front with winds maximizing in the seabreeze zone during the afternoon. Winds become Southwesterly on Thursday ahead of the cold front then clock around to the Northwest Thursday night, increasing to 15 to 20 knots with seas building to 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. While winds will decrease on Friday, seas may remain elevated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 Mostly clear and dry through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday with the next chance of wetting rains Wednesday night into Thursday with the next cold frontal passage. Minimum afternoon RH is expected to again range from the mid-20s to mid-30s on Monday afternoon with light and variable winds, except for a sea-breeze close to the Gulf Coast. The light Southeast transport winds on Monday will contribute to low dispersion over much of the area through the afternoon. The air mass will moisten on Tuesday and moreso on Wednesday as southerly winds are established. Moderate Southerly transport winds on Tuesday are expected to yield high dispersion across much of the region away from the Gulf Coast. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026 Flooding is not expected over the next week. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 57 83 62 / 0 0 10 0 Panama City 80 59 80 67 / 0 0 10 0 Dothan 80 53 83 62 / 0 0 10 10 Albany 81 55 83 61 / 0 0 0 10 Valdosta 83 57 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 87 59 87 62 / 0 10 10 0 Apalachicola 76 62 77 68 / 0 10 10 0&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LF LONG TERM....LF AVIATION...DVD MARINE...Scholl FIRE WEATHER...LF HYDROLOGY...LF