FXUS62 KRAH 250742 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 341 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Canadian high pressure will extend throughout the eastern US through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/... As of 220 AM Saturday... * Frost Advisory in effect this morning for most of the Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain, and also the northern Sandhills of NC * Continued Cool and Dry A split upper flow pattern will begin to take shape today, featuring a norther stream trough extending from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and a southern stream trough/closed low progressing east into the southern Great Plains. Anchored beneath confluent flow aloft, surface high pressure extending southward into the area will remain in control, maintaining cool and dry conditions. Under mostly sunny skies, highs in the lower 60s north to mid 60s south. Tonight, not as cold as increasing mid and high clouds spread eastward into the area ahead of the approaching southern stream system. Lows generally in the lower 40s, with some mid to upper 30s possible in the cooler locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 220 AM Saturday... *Clouds Increase Sunday; Rain spreads in Late Sunday Night The upstream southern stream low will advance slowly east across the Midsouth on Sunday, approaching the southern Appalachians by daybreak Monday. Gradual top-down moistening will develop through the period as a strengthening WAA regime sets up atop persistent high pressure wedging south into the Carolinas. Underneath milky skies(partly to mostly cloudy mid and high clouds), highs Sunday will be comparable to Saturday, with highs ranging from lower 60s north to mid/upper 60s south. By Sunday night, strengthening isentropic ascent combined with increasing upper jet divergence will support the development of stratiform rain spreading into the area from the southwest between 06 to 12z Monday. Overnight lows will range from 45-50. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 341 AM Friday... Monday/Tuesday: A strong sfc high centered over eastern Canada will lock in nely sfc flow again Monday. Aloft, a short-wave will move across the Deep South/TN Valley and washout over the southeast Monday into Tuesday. Latest runs of the GFS/GEFS and Euro/EPS have come into good agreement simulating the development of a coastal low to our southeast Monday afternoon. The placement of the low will keep the deepest moisture and associated QPF well to our south. Here locally, we'll see light isentropic-driven rain early Monday through Tuesday morning (QPF amounts have come down; a few hundreds in the northeast to a half inch in the southwest through 18Z Tuesday). Light rain will continue on and off on Tuesday, possibly diminishing some overnight as the offshore low pulls further away. Given the rain, clouds, and cool nely flow, looks like temps will struggle to reach the lower to mid 50s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Nely gusts of 15 to 25 mph will be possible both afternoons as well. Wednesday through Friday: There remains uncertainty in this part of the forecast as models are in disagreement with how a strong, east coast upper trough will evolve. The GFS/GEFS draws the base of the trough further down into the Deep South, developing a series of coastal lows that draw moisture/rain into our area through Friday. Conversely, the Euro/EPS, lifts the trough further north developing a few lows north and east of us. This scenario favors higher QPF along the coast and up into VA/Delmarva. Regardless of how these features evolve, expect cool nely flow, clouds, and periods of light rain through at least Thursday. Highs during this time will remain below normal in the mid to upper 50s.&& .AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1245 AM Saturday... Canadian high pressure ridging across the Middle Atlantic and Carolinas will support VFR conditions and light winds through the 24 hr period ending at 06z Sunday. Outlook: Predominately VFR conditions are expected through Sunday night. A weakening southern stream low tracking east across the SE US Monday and Tuesday, bringing periods of sub-VFR restrictions in CAD conditions, rain and possibly fog. Confidence decreases mid to late week, but a northern stream low/upper trough could bring another round of rain/showers and aviation restrictions. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ007>011- 021>028-038>041-073>076. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MWS NEAR TERM...CBL SHORT TERM...CBL LONG TERM...Luchetti AVIATION...CBL