FXUS62 KRAH 201743 AFDRAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 145 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * No significant changes from earlier forecasts. && .KEY MESSAGES... As of 215 AM Saturday... 1) Heat followed by a chance of showers and storms Monday into early Tuesday expected ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... As of 215 AM Saturday... KEY MESSAGE 1... Heat followed by a chance of showers and storms Monday into early Tuesday expected ahead of a cold front. Driven by a potent shortwave and low pressure system moving out of the Midwest into our area, this setup will drag a frontal boundary into the Mid-Atlantic, capable of triggering thunderstorms across the region. Confidence remains low regarding the exact timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall and severe risk, though the latest AI-NWP convective models continue to show a 30–45% chance of severe storms across our area. Because showers and storms are expected to hold off until the afternoon Monday, there will be plenty of diurnal heating with afternoons highs in the mid/upper 90s. Triple digit “feels like” temperature results in Heat Risk values reaching the Major category (3 out of 4) across the Triangle and Sandhills, mainly along and east of US1. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 145 PM Saturday... VFR conditions will hold through Sun. Weak high pressure will gradually give way to lee troughing, but regardless, a dry air mass will hold in place, leading to minimal cloudiness and no vsby restrictions. Surface winds will be light and variable through Sun. Looking beyond 18z Sunday, VFR conditions should hold through Monday morning, although there is a slight chance of brief sub-VFR conditions mainly in the SE early Mon morning. As a cold front approaches from the N and slowly moves SSE into the state late Mon through mid week, we'll see an increased chance for showers and storms with sub-VFR conditions, with the highest chances each afternoon and evening. Early-morning stratus and fog will also be possible each morning through Thu. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: June 22: KRDU: 100/2022 KFAY: 101/2022 Record High Minimum Temperatures: June 22: KGSO: 75/1981 KRDU: 78/1933 June 23: KGSO: 74/2024 KRDU: 78/2024 KFAY: 77/2024 && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...CA AVIATION...Hartfield