FXUS62 KMFL 211127 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 727 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 726 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected today. Rain chances remain elevated the rest of the week. - Heavy downpours from the stronger showers and thunderstorms could lead to localized flooding over the urban and poor drainage areas each day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The wet pattern for South FL will continue early this work week. An upper low over the northern part of the state will slowly lift to the northeast today and eventually get absorbed into the broader upper level flow on Tuesday. Meanwhile, moist southerly flow will be in place across South FL with HREF and forecast soundings showing PWAT values of 2.1-2.3 inches. Much like the past several days, convection coverage will likely be broader than what the Hi-res models are showing. Expected numerous thunderstorms during the afternoon and early evening hours both today and Tuesday, with the highest PoPs over the interior and east coast metro. While mean QPF values are generally 0.5-1 inch, highly efficient rainfall rates and slow moving storms will likely result in pockets of 2-4 inches across the area, and that is backed up by the HREF 6 hour max totals late in the day. Therefore, several instances of urban and poor drainage flooding should be expected and prepared for, especially across vulnerable portions of the east coast metro. WPC is carrying a marginal risk of excessive rainfall over the metro for both today and Tuesday. High temperatures today and Tuesday will be generally in the upper 80s to around 90, with the high temps occurring early in the afternoon before rain-cooled temps arrive. Low temps tonight will be in the low to middle 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Mid to late week an upper level low moves into the eastern US and then lingers off the New England coast through the weekend. A frontal boundary will slide south across the state on Thursday and settle either over far southern FL or across the Straits Friday and remain there through the upcoming weekend. Some drier air will likely filter at least down to the lake region late in the week, but will struggle to make it all the way through South FL. This is reflected in the PoPs for late in the week into the weekend with the highest PoPs over the far southern peninsula and lower chance PoPs across the northern half of the forecast area. Overall it will remain a wet and unsettled period across South FL, with at least isolated instances of urban flooding remaining possible each day. Temperatures through the extended period remain near normal with highs each day generally in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 L/V winds this morning will become SE at 5-10 kts across the east coast terminals, with an afternoon westerly Gulf breeze at APF. TEMPOs are in place for east coast terminals this afternoon as scattered SHRA/TSRA along sea breeze boundaries may produce brief periods of sub-VFR conditions. Winds will become L/V once again across all terminals after sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 104 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Gentle southerly flow is expected over the area waters today. Seas generally 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms expected each day this week which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 86 76 87 76 / 70 40 70 60 West Kendall 85 75 86 75 / 7040 70 60 Opa-Locka 86 77 87 75 / 70 40 70 60 Homestead 87 77 87 76 / 70 50 70 70 Fort Lauderdale 87 76 87 76 / 70 40 80 60 N Ft Lauderdale 87 76 88 76 / 70 40 80 60 Pembroke Pines 87 75 87 75 / 70 40 80 60 West Palm Beach 88 75 88 75 / 60 40 80 50 Boca Raton 87 75 88 75 / 70 40 80 60 Naples 87 75 88 75 / 50 40 80 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...DPB