FXUS62 KMFL 191102 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 702 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 701 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 - Hazardous marine conditions continue for all South FL waters. - A high risk of rip currents will continue through the weekend for the east coast beaches. - Temperatures continue to gradually warm up through the end of the work week and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Models depict a lingering mid lvl trough over the eastern seaboard, while sfc high pressure dominates the SE CONUS and the northern half of the Florida peninsula. Closer to SoFlo, a stationary decaying frontal boundary will remain lingering the central Cuba-Bahamas area. Several shortwave impulses can be seen moving along the base of the trough, but any upper lvl enhancement they could provide will remain well north of the area. Combined with increasing pressure gradients bringing breezier northerly winds, expect the current stratiform cloud decks to finally begin pushing southward into the Florida Keys by the late morning hours. While the air mass is not expected to significantly dry out today, atmospheric stability and lack of lifting will reduce POPs in general to single digits this afternoon across much of the area. NBM and high-res solutions suggest some late afternoon marine showers drifting into the Palm Beach/Lake region, which will be kept in the grids for now. Some increasing moisture advection may result in low- end coverage along east coast areas with isolated to scattered passing showers during the evening hours. These coastal showers will likely continue through Friday morning as winds slowly veer to the NE. Then moisture finally decreases enough for showers to end and a dry period to begin Friday afternoon. The decreasing cloud cover should allow for better daytime heating today. High temps this afternoon will be in the mid-upper 70s across SoFlo, warmest over west coast locations. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Models show ridging expanding across the Gulf and stretching into the state, remaining in place through early next week with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies each day. The ridge axis will linger over the region with winds becoming light and variable at times. It will also allow for afternoon temps to go back into the mid-upper 80s by the weekend, a trend that will persist through the rest of the long term. The dry pattern seems to begin modifying by mid week a as a frontal boundary stalls over the SE CONUS while pushing the ridge further into the west Atlantic. This will allow for moisture to gradually return to SoFlo, but with best POPs likely remaining in the 15-20 percent range at best. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 NW winds will become NNE 10-15 kts after 15Z. Some scattered coastal showers are possible. SCT MVFR ceilings expected throughout the period. && .MARINE... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 Robust NNE winds and elevated seas will continue over the Atlantic waters through Friday evening. The Gulf waters will also remain hazardous until late this morning. Seas in the Atlantic 5-9 ft, and 3-6 ft in the Gulf. Occasional thunderstorms are possible today in the Atlantic waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 403 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 A persisting N/NE swell will keep a high risk of rip currents for the Atlantic beaches through at least Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 76 63 75 62 / 10 30 30 10 West Kendall 78 59 78 57 / 10 30 20 10 Opa-Locka 77 62 76 61 / 10 30 30 10 Homestead 77 63 77 61 / 10 30 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 75 64 74 64 / 10 40 30 10 N Ft Lauderdale 75 64 74 63 / 10 40 30 10 Pembroke Pines 78 63 77 62 / 10 40 30 10 West Palm Beach 75 62 74 61 / 10 50 30 10 Boca Raton 75 63 74 62 / 10 50 40 10 Naples 79 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168. High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for AMZ630. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for AMZ650-651-670- 671. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for GMZ656-657- 676. && $$ SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...CMF