FXUS62 KKEY 250239 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1039 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slightly above normal rain chances expected for the next couple of days, along with windy conditions. -Tropical Storm Melissa, nearly stationary in the central Caribbean Sea is gradually strengthening, but will likely have no direct impacts on the Florida Keys. -A cold front towards the middle of next week could bring much cooler conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows the plume of increased moisture that was mainly across the Straits last evening has migrated northward and now encompasses much of the Keys. This has led to KBYX radar detecting showers fairly continuously across the Keys since last evening. Most of this shower activity has remained across the Straits of Florida, though, some additional activity has occasionally developed across the offshore Gulf waters, Florida Bay, and the Upper Keys. Temperatures along the Island Chain are near 80 degrees and dew points are in the lower 70s. Strong surface high pressure remains entrenched across the Northeast U.S. with Tropical Storm Melissa continuing to fester in the central Caribbean Sea. The two of these working in tandem with one with another is creating for a tight pressure gradient across the area. This is promoting mainly northeast breezes of 20 to 25 knots at marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain as a result. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z sounding shows a generally moist profile this evening when compared to 24 hours ago. This indicates as mentioned above in the discussion section that the deeper moisture that was off to the south last evening has shifted northward. Instability has increased a bit also but still nothing significant. The most likely area where there might be a thunderstorm would be over the Straits where the greater dynamics are at play. The wind profile remains unidirectional mostly out of the northeast direction. Therefore, no changes are needed to the ongoing forecast with most shower activity being due to mesoscale processes, remnant boundaries and speed convergence. && .MARINE... Issued at 1039 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across all Florida Keys coastal waters overnight. From synopsis, Tropical Storm Melissa churning in the central Caribbean Sea in combination with strong surface high pressure across the Southeast U.S. over the next couple days will lead to a continued tight pressure gradient. This will promote fresh to strong northeast to easterly breezes through the weekend. Breezes will modestly, but briefly, slacken for early next week, although breezes will likely freshen as the next frontal passage occurs towards midweek. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1039 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both terminals through the TAF period. Moisture has increased across the area since last evening. Therefore, we cannot rule out an occasional passing shower at either terminal through the period. However, due to low confidence in timing and placement of any shower, VCSH was left out of the TAF. Near surface winds are expected to remain northeasterly between 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots Saturday morning. Frequent gusts to near 25 knots are expected through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 77 86 77 / 30 30 20 30 Marathon 85 78 85 79 / 30 30 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest