FXUS62 KKEY 241901 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slightly above normal rain chances expected for the next couple of days, along with windy conditions. -Tropical Storm Melissa, nearly stationary in the central Caribbean Sea is gradually strengthening, but will likely have no direct impacts on the Florida Keys. -A cold front towards the middle of next week could bring much cooler conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 After a somewhat wet start to the Keys this morning, drier air has filtered in across the outer Gulf and nearshore waters north of the island chain. This has pushed the shower activity down into the Straits of Florida. At the same time, a frontal boundary is slowly sagging southward across the Florida Peninsula and is sitting just north of the Florida Keys. As it has approached closer to our area, winds have gradually increased and seeing speeds of 20 to 25 knots across all of our marine platforms. Driving this front is a strong and expansive surface high pressure that is spilling into the eastern half of the U.S. This high will continue to dive southeast before moving east and briefly stalling in the Mid Appalachian region. This will maintain windy conditions across the Keys and surrounding coastal waters through the weekend. Early next week a potent upper level shortwave will race into the Carolinas and Georgia region. As it does, a surface low will develop off the corresponding coastline with a weak frontal boundary draped across the North Gulf Basin. These features in combination of Tropical Storm Melissa slowly moving north northeast, will briefly weaken the pressure gradient. This will allow for winds to slacken modestly. Said weak front will slide through the Keys with very little fanfare Monday night into Tuesday. A weak nocturnal surge is expected along the west coast of Florida that will bleed in across the island chain. Thereafter, eyes will quickly turn to a surface low that will quickly materialize in the Lee of the Rockies and race east southeast. Its current trajectory takes it into the Florida Panhandle by Wednesday evening. This next low will be much stronger than the coastal low that develops earlier in the week. As such, the accompanying cold front will be more noticeable as it blasts through the region overnight Wednesday. Dew points behind this front will fall into the 60s if not near 60 degrees itself. Meanwhile, daytime highs may struggle to reach to near 80 degrees. Overnight low will fall to near 70 with the upper Keys potentially falling into the mid to upper 60s. && .MARINE... Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through the overnight with fresh to strong northeast to east breezes. Tropical Storm Melissa churning in the central Caribbean Sea in combination with high pressure building across the Southeast U.S. over the next couple days will lead to a continued tightening of the pressure gradient. This will promote fresh to strong northeast to easterly breezes through the weekend. Breezes will modestly, but briefly, slacken for early next week, although breezes will likely freshen as the next frontal passage occurs towards midweek. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 301 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon and overnight. In addition, we will continue to see windy conditions persisting throughout the forecast period. Winds will peak Saturday into Saturday night. Could potentially see occasional gusts approaching 30 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 77 86 77 87 / 30 20 30 20 Marathon 78 85 79 85 / 30 20 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest