FXUS62 KKEY 240859 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 459 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Slightly above normal rain and thunder chances expected for the next couple of days, along with windy conditions. -Tropical Storm Melissa, nearly stationary in the central Caribbean Sea, will likely have no direct impacts on the Florida Keys. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Surface analysis places a strong, elongated continental high positioned over the eastern third of the United States. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Melissa is positioned to the southeast of the island country of Jamaica, quasistationary. This places the Florida Keys and the adjacent marine zones in a tight pressure gradient. Available marine observations have indicated sustained winds near 20 knots all night, with occasional gusts near 25 knots. KBYX radar is detecting banding showers in the fresh to strong easterlies, occasionally grazing portions of the Island Chain. Temperatures are generally in the mid-upper 70s across the Keys at this early morning hour. Very few changes were made to the inherited forecast from last night, despite a very complicated overall synoptic pattern. Melissa is expected to strengthen over the next several days in a major hurricane, as it drifts generally to the west. The Florida Keys will remain under the aforementioned competing influence of the dry, continental high and the moist periphery of Melissa. The main weather story over the weekend will be the fresh to strong northeasterly breezes and rough seas, although passing scattered showers or even isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. There is substantial global ensemble mean and individual member support to suggest a developing shortwave trough currently in the Four Corners region will deepen as it progresses eastward over the next several days. This will likely deflect Melissa northeastward, with minimal (if any) direct impacts to the US. The trough will also push a series of early season cold fronts through the Florida Peninsula for the early to middle of next week. Early indications suggest highs may struggle to reach 80F by the end of next week across the Keys. Coupled with expected ample sunshine and dew points in the 60s, a true Florida Fall is likely for this extended forecast period--enjoy. && .MARINE... Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. This will likely remain in effect throughout the weekend. From synopsis, Tropical Storm Melissa churning in the central Caribbean Sea in combination with high pressure building across the Southeast U.S. over the next couple days will lead to a continued tightening of the pressure gradient. This will promote fresh to strong northeast to easterly breezes through the weekend. Breezes will modestly slacken for early next week, although will likely remain moderate to fresh. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Stray showers crossing the island chain will be possible throughout today with brief MVFR CIGs and VIS. Coverage of scattered showers around the island chain will likely diminish after sunrise with VCSH removed from both TAFs around then. Near surface winds will be out of the northeast to east at 10 to 15 knots with frequent gusts to 20 to 25 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 2005, Hurricane Wilma passed just northwest of the Keys. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 77 86 77 / 30 30 30 40 Marathon 85 78 85 79 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....BT/JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest