FXUS62 KKEY 240232 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1032 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... -Low measurable rain chances expected through Friday. A modest increase in moisture for the upcoming weekend will lead to higher rain chances, along with a slight chance of thunder. -Winds will freshen sharply this evening, with windy conditions and rough seas lasting through the weekend. -A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Upper Keys. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 KBYX radar has remained active since mid afternoon with the activity becoming more widespread in the past couple of hours. Initially, there were isolated showers across the distant Straits. However, this has now extended to a broken band of showers moving through the Upper Keys with additional showers across the offshore Gulf waters and the western Straits. All of the shower activity has mainly formed along residual boundaries that have been progressing from northeast to southwest across the Keys. The exception has been across the Straits where the activity remains the most widespread. GOES East Total Precipitable Water (TPW) shows quite the contrast in PWAT values across the Keys. PWAT ranges from around 1 inch across the western and northern portions of the Keys whereas south of the Island Chain across the Straits the values are between 1.4 to 1.7 inches. The more widespread activity has been riding along the leading edge of this increased moisture. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the lower 80s with dew points in the lower 70s. Strong surface high pressure continues to percolate across the eastern United States with Tropical Storm Melissa in the central Caribbean Sea. This has created a strengthened pressure gradient this evening resulting in marine platforms around the Keys observing northeast breezes near 20 knots. Due to this, A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding is quite dry. The PWAT value measured was 1.06 inches which is close to the 10th percentile for the date. Instability is very low to none. The wind profile shows a unidirectional flow through the lowest part of the atmosphere with mainly northeasterlies. Outside of residual boundaries, other mesoscale processes, and some speed convergence, a slight chance of showers remains overnight for the Island Chain. There is higher moisture as depicted above in the discussion across the Straits of Florida which is leading to more widespread activity across the area. Therefore, no changes expected to the ongoing forecast. && .MARINE... Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters through the overnight period. From synopsis, Tropical Storm Melissa churning in the central Caribbean Sea in combination with high pressure building across the Southeast U.S. over the next couple days will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient. This will promote freshening northeast to easterly breezes beginning tonight. Fresh to occasionally strong northeast to east breezes are expected to remain in place Friday through the weekend due to the stagnant pattern. Breezes will slacken briefly Monday into Tuesday, then gradually freshen once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1030 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain mainly northeasterly between 10 to 15 knots overnight and Friday with frequent gusts of 20 to 25 knots, increasing to near 25 knots Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 76 86 77 / 10 1020 30 Marathon 85 77 85 78 / 10 10 20 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....MC Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest