FXUS62 KKEY 201538 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1138 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions will continue through the afternoon, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect for all Keys coastal waters. - Winds will gradually decrease late this afternoon and evening, with light to gentle breezes expected over the weekend. - Mainly dry conditions expected through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 Composite tropospheric analysis places a surface high pressure system extending from the central Gulf northeastward across the Eastern Seaboard, with a stubborn quasistationary front to the southeast. Further aloft, the Florida Keys fall in the southern periphery of a positively tilted trough, supporting anomalously cool in the mid and upper levels. Often, these troughing features also support convective outbreaks for the Florida Keys. However, the 12z morning sounding at KEY sampled extremely dry air above 800 mb, along with a dry pocket of air from the surface up to around 900 mb. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and local radar imagery are detecting scattered cloud cover and light showers in our eastern marine zones, associated with modest confluence, and mainly clear skies and echo-free returns across the majority of the remaining Keys the surrounding marine zones. With even drier air upstream depicted in satellite-dervied, total precipitable water products, elected to remove measurable rain chances for the first period. In addition, as winds struggle to veer to the northeast, continued cool advection will likely limit afternoon temperature recovery into the lower to mid 70s. No other changes proposed for this late morning update iteration. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 433 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A mostly quiet radar has been ongoing overnight for the Florida Keys area with only a few occasional light showers forming over old land breeze boundaries lingering in the Straits of Florida. Nighttime Microphysics depicts mostly clear skies outside of the Upper Keys where light showers are currently present. Temperatures across the island chain are in the upper 60s with dew points in the lower 60s. Along the Reef, current observations recording north to northeast at near 20 knots. Last night's 00z sounding revealed a drier profile has moved in, verified on MIMIC Precipitable water by the large patch of dry air sinking south into the Gulf waters. Therefore, shower activity is expected to be limited throughout the day. Ridging over the western Atlantic will allow for drier conditions and light to gentle breezes making for a really nice upcoming weekend. Chances of rain will return to the forecast mid week as a cold front associated with a short wave trough move through the Southeast. Thereafter, another high will build in promoting another round of breezy and drier conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Florida Keys marine zones. As breezes begin to slacken later this afternoon, these will likely be able to be trimmed back for portions of the coastal waters. From synopsis, elongated high pressure over the Eastern Seaboard interacting with a decaying frontal boundary to the southeast will maintain fresh to occasionally strong breezes through much of the afternoon. Breezes will slacken appreciably late this afternoon and evening, with light to gentle breezes expected for the weekend into early next week. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals, with nil rain chances through 12z Saturday morning, Near-surface winds out of the north to northeast will frequently gust to near 20 knots through 00z this evening. Gusts will become less frequent thereafter. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 78 67 77 67 / 0 0 0 0 Marathon 76 66 77 67 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...BT Aviation/Nowcasts....BT Data Acquisition.....BT Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest