FXUS62 KKEY 201537

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Measurable rain chances will remain low through the weekend,

  only up to 10% for each forecast period.



- Conditions will remain seasonably warm and muggy, but we may see

  heat index values above 105F, particularly along the Upper Keys,

  through Sunday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

A somewhat busy morning for the coastal waters with scattered

showers and isolated thunderstorms popping up in the nearshore and

offshore waters of the Upper and Middle Keys. Observation sites

reported only a few hundreths of an inch of rainfall so not much

impact to the island chain. Outside of convection most of the CWA

is mostly sunny on GOES-19 Visible Satelitte. Temperatures across

the island chain are nearing 90 today making it feel very hot

outside! Along the Reef, winds have slackened to 5 to 10 knots and

are variable in direction. Today will be another similar day to

the last few with waxing and waning lighter shower activity, and

mostly light to gentle breezes. No changes were made to this

update package. 



&&



.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... 

Issued at 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



We had quite a bit more excitement in the late evening and early

hour of the overnight as convection spilled off the Mainland and

across the waters north of the island chain. Unfortunately, none

of the precipitation made it to the Keys themselves. Given that we

were under a weakened pressure field, the mesoscale forces took

charge and we briefly saw a surge of northeasterlies. This was

very short lived and the winds have already clocked back around

from the southeast. The northeast winds we saw were too brief to

even nudge our temperatures down and Key West is on track to tie

another warm low temperature. We did actually see dew points fall

a few points and briefly dipped to the mid 70s.



The only changes in the last 24 hours is that a broad ridge the

lies from the central North Atlantic to the Gulf Basin is

fracturing into two smaller cells. This will lead to winds

gradually becoming light and variable by this afternoon and

continuing through at least Sunday night. The ridge will

consolidate Monday and briefly strengthen allowing for winds to

increase Monday and Monday night. However, as mentioned it will be

short lived and the ridge will weaken again with winds coming back

down.



Meanwhile, moisture will continue to be incredibly limited to the

boundary layer with drier air and deep layer subsidence above

this. This will keep rain chances at 10 percent or less through

the weekend and into Monday. As the ridge consolidates on Monday,

we could see pockets of slightly better moisture pivot in at

times. With that being said, chances will remain slight (10 to 20

percent) at best next week. Despite no air mass changes occurring

through the forecast period, dew points may come a few degrees

next week.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for

the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, a broad, weak high 

pressure currently extending from the central North Atlantic and 

across the Gulf Basin will fracture into two cells. This will lead

to a weakening pressure field across the Florida Keys and 

surrounding coastal waters. As a result, expect light and variable

winds at times starting this afternoon and continuing through 

Sunday night. Thereafter, the two high pressure cells will merge 

and briefly build, allowing breezes to freshen slightly Monday and

Monday night. The high is then expected to weaken again with 

lighter breezes returning Tuesday.



&&



.AVIATION...

(15Z TAFS)

Issued at 1137 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFRconditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH through the TAF

period. Some light shower are possible at either terminal but

confidence on timing and strength leaves mention of VCSH out of

the TAFs. Near surface winds will be southeasterly at 5 to 10

knots then become light and variable later this afternoon. 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...AP

Aviation/Nowcasts....AP

Data Acquisition.....AP



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