FXUS62 KKEY 200234

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1034 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Breezy to windy conditions will continue, with a Small Craft

  Advisory in effect for all Keys coastal waters. 



- Winds will gradually decrease on Friday, with light to gentle

  breezes expected over the weekend.



- Drier conditions expected through early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Slightly cooler than normal conditions continue across the Keys

this evening. This is due to breezy north to northeasterlies,

driven by an elongated ridge spanning the southeastern United

States. This flow is also supporting fairly dry conditions with

dew points in the lower 60s. The mid to upper level trough that

had kept overcast skies and above normal rain chances is still

there, but has nudged eastward sufficiently to let drier air move

in through the mid and upper levels. This evenings sounding 

indicated precipitable water has fallen half an inch to around 1

inch. In addition, an inhibition layer has firmed up around 800 mb

with drying occurring through a thick layer below. As a result, 

the island chain has been predominantly rain free, with all

nearby activity occurring on a number of boundaries emanating off

of South Florida.



The surface high will remain fairly stationary overnight. This

along with mainland cooling should help bolster breezes overnight.

Expect breezes to strengthen modestly out of the north, likely

becoming windy by morning. Overnight lows should be able to settle

into the mid 60s with dew points holding near to slightly above

60. Rain chances will remain slim at best. A rare shower cannot be

completely ruled out as the capping inversion is high enough to

allow for low topped showers.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



A surface ridge stretching along the southeast Atlantic Coast and

Gulf coast, along with night time cooling over the peninsula will

result in fresh north to northeasterly breezes overnight. A Small

Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys waters. Only minor

adjustments made to remove some first period wind transition

wording.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 937 PM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.

Surface winds will be moderate to fresh and gusty out of the north

to northeast. This will result in a significant crosswind 

component.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.



&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...11

Aviation/Nowcasts....11

Data Acquisition.....AJP



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