FXUS62 KKEY 191630 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1230 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Nocturnal convection has mostly fallen apart this morning leaving the Florida Keys and its coastal waters largely rain free. KBYX is still tracking one small shower in the distant Straits off of the Middle Keys, but GOES-19 visible imagery notes mostly clear skies with a few fair weather cumulus stretched across our CWA otherwise. Hurricane Erin is currently east of The Bahamas and while it will continue to move off to the northwest, its influence on our wind field is observed along the Reef with gentle and somewhat variable northerly winds. Meanwhile, temperatures along the island chain are already near 90 with unfortunate dewpoints up to the lower 80s. More of the same weather is expected in the short term forecast. CIMSS MIMIC Layer TPW notes the same dry slot it did yesterday over south Florida and our area. This dry air can also be observed in the mid levels of this mornings KKEY 12z sounding and is mostly the blame for suppressed convective development today. Once again, we will be looking for late afternoon seabreeze convection from mainland to follow northerly flow into our waters. Usually this set up can cause a lot of rain to sweep through, but CAMs are not too thrilled with the set up possibly due to the unseasonably dry air aloft. Thus chance PoPs are held for now. Tonight and into tomorrow, breezes will continue to freshen out of the northwest and turn to the west. Rain chances will remain near or above normal due to excess moisture from Erin for the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 1155 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the coastal waters of the Florida Keys. From synopsis, Hurricane Erin will turn due northward over the open Atlantic over the course of today. The increasingly expansive circulation of Erin will result in a transition from light to gentle northerly breezes across Florida Keys coastal waters overnight, to gentle to moderate northwest breezes Tuesday and moderate to fresh westerly breezes on Wednesday. A slight swell from the north will lead to elevated seas in eastern portions of the Florida Straits and Hawk Channel. As Hurricane Erin migrates farther away toward the north and northeast, a weak subtropical high pressure ridge will settle over Florida Keys coastal waters, resulting in a lighter wind pattern Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. While showers are expected to push off of mainland Florida towards the island chain later today, uncertainty in exact timing and location will leave mention out of either TAF for now. Near surface winds will start light and variable, becoming northwest and gradually increasing to near 10 knots. && .CLIMATE... On this day in Keys weather history, in 2022, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was last recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. Also, in 2024, the daily record warm low temperature of 84F was last recorded in Marathon. Temperature records for Marathon date back to 1950. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 93 83 93 82 / 30 30 30 30 Marathon 91 82 91 83 / 30 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...JAM Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest