FXUS62 KKEY 071425 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 854 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Near surface winds continue to slowly trend downward today and tonight. The environment remains muggy as the morning 12Z KKEY sounding measured a PWAT value a bit shy of the 75th percentile, but notably all the moisture was below about 800 mb. The upper atmosphere remains very dry as seen on GOES East water vapor imagery. Cloud cover is minimal this morning with sparse low level cumulus across the Keys waters. Temperatures are on track to reach the lower to mid 80s across the island chain and dew points are lingering in the lower 70s. Today looks to be another uneventful weather day for the Florida Keys, but zooming out to look at the wider environment indicates this lull will come to an end. The pronounced trough and frontal system associated with the days long severe weather event over the ArkLaTex region and the Tennessee valley finally moved east yesterday. The cold front will make its way across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon, and is forecast to move across the Florida Keys tomorrow night. The longwave trough associated with this front will direct a significant plume of moisture across the Keys starting tonight. Notably, the Storm Prediction Center placed the Keys in a Marginal risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms tomorrow, and the WPC issued a Marginal threat (Level 1 of 4) for heavy rainfall for the Upper Keys. Stay tuned, Tuesday is going to be busy. && .MARINE... Issued at 854 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 From synopsis, moderate southeast breezes will continue to slowly slacken this afternoon as as a low pressure system deepens over the eastern United States. Shower and thunder chances will increase Tuesday with a front passing through the Keys late Tuesday night. Breezes will freshen and veer to the northwest to north as the front approaches and passes through the Keys before slackening and shifting back to the east by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 854 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions will prevail at both EYW and MTH today. Southerly surface winds will veer later tonight as a cold front approaches the Keys. Have included VCSH at 04z/06z to indicate when showers could start impacting EYW and MTH respectively. Due to the forecasted scattered mode of these showers, TEMPOs will be amended in with more details as convection develops and more details are clearer. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 85 75 84 69 / 0 40 60 50 Marathon 84 76 82 70 / 0 30 50 60 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AJP Aviation/Nowcasts....JAM Data Acquisition.....JAM Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest