FXUS62 KKEY 070821 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 421 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A mostly peaceful night into the morning has been occurring for the Florida Keys. KBYX radar has remained echo-free and clouds seen on Nighttime Microphysics are minimal for our CWA. Across the island chain, temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 70s. Observations from the Reef show winds have continued to slacken and now are near 15 knots. For today, weather is expected to stayed mostly mild with highs in the lower to mid 80s and moderate to gentle breezes. Tonight, rain chances are reintroduced to the forecast as moisture in the low levels will increase and the wind profile shifts southerly. On Tuesday, a mid latitude system will move easterly pushing a cold front towards the Florida Keys. Pre-front, moisture is expect to ramp up giving us increasing chances of rain to our area. Opted to bump PoPs for Tuesday and Tuesday night to 60%. While the environment also becomes more unstable, thunderstorm activity is becoming increasingly more likely for the same time frame. South Florida including the Florida Keys are under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather with primary hazards being gusty winds and cloud to ground lightning strikes. Post frontal passage, high pressure will return, winds will slacken, and rain chances will diminish. In the extended range towards the end of the week, another cold front, this time a drier one, will push thorugh the Keys reinforcing cooler temperatures and drier dewpoints making for a pleasant weekend! && .MARINE... Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 No watches, warnings, or advisories are currently in effect for the Florida Keys waters. From synopsis, moderate southeast breezes will continue to slowly slacken today as as a low pressure system deepens over the eastern United States. Shower and thunder chances will increase Tuesday with a front passing through the Keys late Tuesday night. Breezes will freshen and veer to the northwest to north as the front approaches and passes through the Keys before slackening and shifting back to the east by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 421 AM EDT Mon Apr 7 2025 VFR conditions prevail at EYW and MTH through the morning and afternoon. Near surface winds will remain generally from the south southeast throughout the forecast period. A front will gradually approach from the northwest, which will clock winds around more southerly beginning after midnight. The threat for showers returns overnight but may not affect the terminals until after 06Z/08. && .CLIMATE... On this day in 1918, the daily record rainfall of 1.94" was recorded in Key West. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...AP Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....LIW Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest