FXUS62 KKEY 060225 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1025 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain chances will be near zero for the island chain through most of, if not the rest of, the week. - Light and variable winds will gradually veer to the east to southeast by Wednesday morning. - Dew points may increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week, and this will bring about some heat risk concerns as these will be the first prevailing higher dew points of the season. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 CIMSS products shows a deep mean layer ridge centered over the southern Bay of Campeche, Mexico, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The ridge extends northward to the North Gulf Coast and northeastward towards Florida. Florida remains on the back side of an upper level trough lifting out of the region. At the surface, high pressure is centered off the coast of North Carolina with this ridge only subtly affecting the Keys leading to a weak gradient. Marine observation platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording variable breezes near 5 knots. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows much drier air has moved into the Keys compared to 24 hours ago with PWATs estimated to 0.8 inches to 1.1 inches. This is between the 10th and 25th percentile for the date. KBYX radar has been void of shower activity as a result with the exception of between 530-630 pm when a shower moved through Ocean Reef. This shower quickly dissipated once it emerged over Hawk Channel. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics shows a mostly clear sky across the Keys with mainly high level cirrus streaming from northwest to southeast. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in near 80 degrees and dew points are near 70 degrees. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding is much drier tonight compared to 24 hours ago. Some moisture remains in a shallow layer between 975-925 mb with another shallow moist layer between 250-200 mb. The PWAT value measured was 1.04 inches which is substantially drier than last evening. Based on the variable wind flow, lower moisture, and no source of lift, the forecast for tonight remains dry and unchanged. && .MARINE... Issued at 1025 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a poorly defined wind field with light and variable breezes will persist until ridging can become better established across the Florida peninsula on Wednesday. At that point, winds will become a climatologically appropriate light to gentle east to southeasterly breeze. Deep layered ridging will dominate from mid week through the remainder of the work week. This along with very weak forcing will keep rain chances out until at least Saturday when southeasterly breezes strengthen to gentle to moderate, bringing in increased boundary layer moisture and opening the door to maritime showers. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026 VFR conditions are expected to persist at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain northwest to north through the wii hours of the overnight before shifting to the southeast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 86 77 87 79 / 10 0 0 0 Marathon 85 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...MJV Aviation/Nowcasts....MJV Data Acquisition.....AP Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest