FXUS62 KKEY 051905

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

305 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Rain chances will be near zero for the island chain through most

  of, if not the rest of, the week. 



- Light and variable winds will gradually veer to the east to 

  southeast by Wednesday morning.



- Dew points may increase to the mid 70s by the end of the week,

  and this will bring about some heat risk concerns as these will

  be the first prevailing higher dew points of the season.



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both island terminals through the

TAF period. Light and variable surface winds will eventually

assume and east to southeasterly component near the end of the

period. Chances for rain remain near zero percent.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 301 PM EDT Tue May 5 2026

There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the 

Florida Keys local waters. Light and variable winds will continue 

through the evening, and will assume an east to southeasterly 

direction during the late overnight hours. Ridging currently 

building in will encourage light to gentle east to southeasterly 

breezes through the middle of the week with chances for rain near 

zero percent.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... 

Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026

Robust mid to upper level ridging will amplify over the next 

couple of days as it drives eastward through the Gulf. This will 

result in rising mid level heights and considerable drying through

the column. As a result, a few showers this morning should give 

way to rain free weather by tonight. Winds will remain light and 

often variable today into tonight as the weak trough slowly 

dissipates and ridging begins building southwestward across 

Florida. With nothing to kick out the in-situ airmass, expect 

temperatures to largely remain slightly above normal with highs in

the upper 80s and lows in the upper 70s.



The mid to upper level ridge will continue to push eastward and be

aligned across Cuba on Thursday and flatten as it transitions 

into the Atlantic. Precipitable water will fall to slightly below 

normal with a nose of low level inhibition strengthening. As a 

result, rain chances will remain out of the forecast through the 

remainder of the work week. At the same time, Atlantic surface 

ridging will broaden as it becomes better established across South

Florida. In response, winds will become light to gentle 

southeasterlies. This flow will bring in warmer and more humid 

air. Expect highs in the upper 80s, overnight lows struggling to 

fall below 80, and dew points climbing into the muggy mid 70s 

range. 



Uncertainty is fairly high heading into the weekend. A new

shortwave trough will begin swinging eastward through eastern

United States, flattening the upper level ridge. The lower level 

ridge will be pinched southeastward across Cuba and the Bahamas 

and setup a moistening and increasingly confluent flow. Meanwhile

the surface ridge will expand northward and help to bring in 

freshening southeasterlies. Altogether, this will open the door 

to isolated to possibly scattered showers. Day time highs may 

slip a degree or two while overnight lows will be near or slightly

above 80. 



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.

&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...DP

Aviation/Nowcasts....DP

Data Acquisition.....DP



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