FXUS62 KKEY 030354

AFDKEY



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Key West FL

1054 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Small Craft Should Exercise Caution in the Florida Straits until

  residual seas subside. 



- Weather will trend drier and modestly warmer over the next few

  days.



- The next cold front is scheduled to push through the Florida

  Keys on Thursday afternoon or evening.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1018 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



Very cool conditions continue across the Keys this evening in wake

of the recent historic cold front. Winds have finally relented and

are now light to gentle out of the north to northeast. These

breezes are being directed by a ~1030 high centered over the

Florida Peninsula. Temperatures remain quite cool with the Lower

Keys seeing Lower to Mid 50s, while the Upper Keys are near to

slightly above 50. Dry conditions continue with dew points in the

mid 30s for most island locations. Ocean Reef, remaining in South

Florida's shadow, is seeing mid 20's dew points.



The surface high will remain roughly centered over the peninsula

overnight. This along with clear skies will ensure light to gentle

north to northeasterly breezes and another cold night. Due to the

land breeze, expect breezes to be more veered along the western 

reaches of the Keys and backed west of north in the far eastern 

Upper Keys. There is a possibility for radiational cooling in

portions of the Lower Keys as winds run increasingly in line with

the island chain and decouple. There is the potential for a huge

range in overnight lows due to dew points in the 30s. Looking 

towards the other end of the chain, portions of the Upper Keys 

will be affected by cold air flowing off of the Mainland. With all

that said, expect overnight lows to range quite broadly in the 

40s. Rain chances will be nil with skies remaining clear.



&&



.MARINE...

Issued at 1018 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



Winds and seas have finally come down below Small Craft Advisory

levels through the afternoon and evening. Residual seas linger in

the Florida Straits. As a result, a Caution remains until seas

subside. Surface winds, driven by a high centered over the

peninsula, will remain gentle to moderate overnight. A subtle 

wind surge is possible in the lee of South Florida. However, 

guidance has been unenthusiastic regarding any significant pickup.



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 1018 PM EST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR conditions will prevail at the island terminals overnight.

Surface winds will be light to gentle out of the north to

northeast.



&&



.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...None.

GM...None.



&&



$$



Public/Marine/Fire...11

Aviation/Nowcasts....11

Data Acquisition.....LIW



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