FXUS62 KILM 241815 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC Issued by National Weather Service Charleston SC 215 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and cool conditions through the weekend. A coastal trough, low pressure system, and cold front will then bring more cool temperatures and unsettled weather through at least next Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Clear and quiet weather through the period. Confluent midlevel flow will help to entrench high pressure centered to our north. This high should have presence enough to keep a few knots of wind up tonight preventing idealized radiational cooling conditions. Most guidance is in pretty good agreement then with respect to lows in the low to mid 40s should this assumption about not decoupling hold. Even the NBM 10th percentile seems to support this idea as it is only a handful of degrees cooler than the rest of the guidance. The setup does not change appreciably tomorrow, the 4kft BL becoming composed of NE flow that will cap highs to values similar to those of this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure will ridge southward into the area thru the period while a coastal trough develops late Sun as mid-level shortwave energy approaches from the west. This will lead to increasing moisture, initially mostly in the form of clouds Sun (although could see some light rain near the coast later in the day) and then possibly in the form of some rain Sun night. Temps stay below normal, coolest Sat night. No hazards expected thru the period. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lower confidence in forecast details this period as the pattern becomes more amplified. Low pressure is likely to develop along the coastal trough offshore early in the period but its track/strength remain uncertain. Beyond then forecast confidence stays pretty low but another cold front could move through mid week. Cooler than normal temps are expected at the very least along with breezy conditions, especially near the coast. There is a low probability of excessive rainfall, especially Mon/Mon night and again Wed/Wed night. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR through the period. High pressure to our north will bring a NW wind early that will veer to the NE this evening and into the overnight hours due to a slight eastward jog in its position. Extended Outlook...VFR to dominate Sat thru Sun. Flight restrictions possibilities increase Sun night thru Tue as low pressure affects the area with rain chances under breezy NE winds especially across the coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Through Saturday… NW winds start to veer gradually this evening, winding up out of the NE through Saturday. This is in response to high pressure to our north moving slightly eastward. Seas in the 2-3 ft range will consist of the N to NE wind chop atop a less swell component out of the SE. Saturday night through Wednesday...High confidence in elevated winds thru the period (mainly NEly) as high pressure remains to the north and low pressure likely develops offshore. Low to moderate confidence regarding wind speeds/seas though as much depends on the strength/track of any low pressure system(s). At the very least, SCA conditions are possible starting Sun and are likely Sun night thru Wed, with gales also possible starting Mon. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... NEAR TERM...MBB SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM... AVIATION...MBB MARINE...ILM