FXUS62 KILM 240002 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 802 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will maintain dry and unseasonably cool conditions through the weekend. A coastal trough and low pressure system or two should then lead to periods of unsettled weather and a continuation of below normal temperatures starting as early as Sunday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will build behind a surface trough tonight. Outside of a brief surge in boundary layer winds and a few upper level clouds, the boundary passage is likely to go unnoticed. Temperatures will only be a couple of degrees cooler on Friday with clear skies continuing. Dry conditions are expected again with minimum RH down to 20% or 30%. Winds will be lighter, so do not expect the level of fire danger that we have seen over the past several days. Lows tonight in the low to mid 40s inland, upper 40s near the coast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: None *Temps: Below Normal *Hazards: None *Confidence: Moderate to High Details: Surface high pressure centered to the north will continue to ridge southward into the area. Mostly zonal flow aloft will prevail with heights slightly on the increase. Dry weather is expected with a few more clouds toward the end of the period. Temps will remain below normal, especially Friday night when we could see 30s in the normally colder inland spots. Can't rule out a bit of patchy frost if/where temps dip into the mid 30s but not expecting coverage to be enough to warrant a Frost Advisory. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: None thru Sun; Low to Moderate Sun night thru Wed night; Low Thu *Temps: Below Normal *Hazards: Very low risk for locally excessive rainfall Mon thru Wed night (especially near the coast) *Confidence: Moderate to High thru Sun night; Low to Moderate Mon thru Thu (lowest regarding rain amounts/timing) Details: High pressure centered off to the north will continue to ridge southward into SE NC & NE SC through much, if not all, of the period. Looks dry through at least Sun before rain chances begin to increase Sun night as a coastal trough develops offshore and moisture increases ahead of an approaching shortwave trough aloft as the mid-level pattern becomes more active. Still decent uncertainty starting Monday, particularly regarding the track/strength of any coastal low(s) which could bring periods of unsettled weather. At the very least we should see below normal temps, some rain, and breezy conditions (especially near the coast). && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Extended Outlook...VFR. Rain associated with low pressure remains possible early next week but confidence remains low. && .MARINE... Through Friday... High pressure builds into the region tonight behind a surface trough. Northerly winds surge for a brief period behind the trough tonight. Gusts up to 20 knots will be possible into Friday morning as the high builds southward. Later in the afternoon, high pressure will move southward and should lead to increasing N to NE winds tomorrow evening. Friday Night through Tuesday...Moderate to high confidence thru Sun, then low to moderate confidence starting Sun night. High pressure will remain centered to the north with a coastal trough developing this weekend. The forecast becomes more uncertain though as we begin the work week as at least one low pressure system is likely to develop along the trough. The strength/track of any low pressure(s) will largely determine marine conditions but at the very least a Small Craft Advisory looks likely,possibly as early as Sun. Gales are also a possibility starting Mon. && .EQUIPMENT... NOAA Weather Radio transmitter in Winnabow (KHB-31) at a frequency of 162.550 MHz is back in operation. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM NEAR TERM...21 SHORT TERM...RJB LONG TERM...RJB AVIATION...SHK MARINE...RJB/21 EQUIPMENT...