FXUS62 KILM 201830

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

230 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Confidence in temperatures above normal next week is increasing.

Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with

diurnal convection returning Monday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures a few degrees above normal next

week with diurnal convection returning Monday.



Broad ridging aloft south of the area starts to expand north on

Sun, peaking in strength Mon. Subsidence on the northern side 

of the ridge will lead to temperatures near to slightly above 

normal Sun and even warmer on Mon. The subsidence, leading to 

mid-level dry air and stability, will keep rain chances very low

Sun. Rain chances increase slightly Mon, given temperatures in 

the mid 90s, but the environment remains unfavorable for more 

than a few afternoon or evening storms. 



Weak shortwave early Tue dents the ridge, but enhanced 

subsidence in the wake of the shortwave and resulting westerly 

flow will result in temps as warm if not warmer than Mon. Warmth

will also extend to the coast with the sea breeze pinned by

westerly low level flow. Would not be shocked to see Tue highs

1-2 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Similar to Mon the 

environment is not one conducive to the development of storms 

and while some isolated convection is likely due to the heat, do

not anticipate a lot of coverage. Cloud cover and storm 

coverage starts to increase for the second half of next week, 

leading to slightly cooler afternoon highs and higher rain 

chances.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR through the valid TAF period. Weak high building in from the 

north today with light northerly winds, becoming southeast once the 

sea breeze passes. Light southerly winds continue overnight.



Extended Forecast...VFR through Sunday. Isolated MVFR/IFR possible 

with scattered afternoon and evening storms starting Monday.



&&



.MARINE...

Light northerly flow today will become southerly tonight as weak 

high migrates off the coast. Southwest flow becomes entrenched for 

the start of next week with surface high anchored offshore. Inland 

heating and the arrival of a cold front will tighten the gradient 

over the waters Mon/Tue resulting in a jump in speeds to 15-20kt for 

the start of the work week. The increase in winds will lead to seas 

building from around 2 ft this weekend to 3 ft Mon and 3-4 ft with 

widespread 4 ft beyond 20 nm Tue. A front moves in from the 

northwest Tue night, followed by high pressure and northerly flow 

Wed morning before winds shift to southeast in the afternoon. 

The change in wind direction and reduction in speeds will lead 

to seas falling to 2-3 ft Wed. A southerly wind wave remains 

dominant through the forecast, with the period gradually 

decreasing through Mon before starting to increase as the wind 

wave starts to transition to a swell.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...III

KEY MESSAGES...III

DISCUSSION...III

AVIATION...III

MARINE...III