FXUS62 KILM 200512 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 112 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1)Warming today continues through Monday before much cooler temperatures arrive following a strong cold front late Monday. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming today continues through Monday before much cooler temperatures arrive following a strong cold front late Monday. KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Elongated surface ridge over the area Fri is suppressed south and east by shortwave crossing the Mid- Atlantic/Northeast Sat. Southern portion of the surface ridge consolidates over the FL Peninsula and lingers there into next week, resulting in weak south to southwest flow locally. Aloft, the 5h ridge over the Southwest CONUS flattens and expands east. Subsidence along the periphery of the ridge coupled with deep west-northwest flow over the Southeast leads to temperatures well above normal through Mon. A more significant 5h trough and associated surface low next week drive a cold front across the area Mon night into Tue, dropping temperatures to near to slightly below normal. Isolated weak showers with the front are possible, given it's strength, but moisture is limited. Lack of moisture return ahead of the front will limit coverage and strength of any showers resulting in minimal rainfall. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR. Light winds through this morning. South-southwest winds develop this afternoon, with a southeasterly sea breeze at coastal terminals between 17z and 22z. Scattered to broken mid-clouds around 10kft move across late this afternoon through this evening. Extended Forecast... VFR. && .MARINE... Through Tonight... High pressure overhead this morning will shift offshore as a trough approaches later today. Light northerly winds through midday veers to southerly by this evening and then southwesterly tonight, peaking at 15-20 kts late tonight into early Saturday morning. Seas around 2-4 ft, primarily due to E swell during the day with building SW wind wave tonight. Saturday through Tuesday... Surface high off the coast and to the south will maintain southerly flow into Mon. Weak gradient will keep speeds in the 10-15 kt range into Mon. Speeds increase to 15-20 kt Mon as gradient tightens up ahead of a cold front. Front arrives Mon night followed by a northerly surge that is likely to warrant a SCA for a portion of Mon night and much of Tue. Surge weakens Tue with northerly flow moderating quickly. Seas 2-4 ft Sat through Mon. Once the cold front arrives the enhanced northerly flow builds seas to 4-7 ft late Mon night and for much of Tue. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM KEY MESSAGES...III DISCUSSION...III AVIATION...VAO MARINE...III/VAO