FXUS62 KILM 050634

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

234 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Chances of rain have been raised slightly on Thursday and 

lowered on Friday.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday followed by 

showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday 

followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front 

Thursday.



Warming will take place as high pressure establishes itself

offshore with a southerly return flow setting up. Wednesday 

will be the warmest with temps well into the 80s away from the 

beaches. Moisture will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday 

with persistent and deeper S/SW flow. Dewpoint temps will be 

back up in the 60s on Wednesday with precipitable water values 

reaching around one and a half inches. Guidance continues to

favor dry weather for Wednesday...can't rule out any very 

isolated showers with the sea breeze but for now went with 

broad-scale sub-20% PoPs. High rain chances (likely- 

categorical) return Thursday as a deepening mid- to upper-level 

trough pushes a cold front closer. By the aftn, there will be 

better upper-level support to produce heavier showers and some 

thunderstorms, however the severe potential is not particularly 

high due to cloud cover and deep-layer flow being parallel to 

the front. Cooler and drier air will follow behind the front for

Friday with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

High confidence VFR through today and tonight. The column will

remain mostly dry with mainly passing cirrus, and possibly FEW-

SCT diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Winds will be gusty at times

especially at the coastal terminals this afternoon as a result 

of the seabreeze. 



Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An

approaching cold front during Thursday may produce early 

morning stratus along with some relatively brief restrictions 

within showers or thunderstorms during the day. VFR should 

return for Friday and Saturday.



&&



.MARINE...

Through tonight... A surface ridge axis will linger across the

adjacent waters through today and tonight. A Sly pressure 

gradient will prevail as a result with speeds around 10 kts 

today across the coastal waters and 10-15 kts for the offshore 

waters. The seabreeze will increase speeds a notch across the 

coastal waters this afternoon/evening. Speeds will increase a 

little more overnight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten

further. Seas today will be around 2 ft for the coastal waters 

and 3 ft for the offshore waters, increase by a foot tonight. 

While not widespread, isolated to widely scattered showers are 

possible tonight, mainly across the offshore waters. 



Wednesday through Saturday... Sub-SCA conditions continue 

Wednesday into Wednesday night with SSW flow on the west side of

offshore sfc high pressure in the 10-20 kt range. Winds and 

seas then ramp up through the day Thursday as the pressure 

gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Confidence is 

moderate for gusts to 25 kt and/or seas up to 6 ft late 

Thursday over the 0-20 NM coastal waters. As usual conditions 

will be slightly worse over the 20-60 NM waters, but confidence 

is low that a Gale Warning will be needed, as the NW flow 

behind the front doesn't look to be higher in magnitude than 

the pre-frontal winds. Marine conditions improve for Friday and 

Saturday as sfc high pressure builds over the waters.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM

KEY MESSAGES...ILM

DISCUSSION...ILM

AVIATION...SRP

MARINE...MAS/SRP