FXUS62 KILM 041817

AFDILM



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Wilmington NC

217 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Minor chances made with the forecast update. Aviation 

discussion updated for 18Z TAFs.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Unsettled weather pattern continues, with scattered to 

numerous showers and storms expected through the end of the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather pattern continues, with

scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the 

end of the week.



A slight deviation from what we saw yesterday as mainly stratiform 

activity continues at the coast, the debris clouds slightly 

sequestering inland activity. The heavier showers we saw into the 

evening are instead forming west of I-95, though we could see 

showers start to pop up further east should these clouds break up 

quickly. Isolated flooding is possible should slow-moving, heavy 

rainfall move over the same areas for several hours. Activity should 

calm down into the evening before picking up again early Wednesday 

morning, mirroring what we've been seeing with showers moving 

onshore. Due to the calm conditions and rainfall, fog formation is 

possible, particularly inland, though there's uncertainty with the 

coverage at this time. Activity should be slightly diminished into 

Wednesday as the upper low shifts west, more noticeable as we head 

into the weekend. We could see a return to a more typical scattered 

afternoon shower/storm pattern as moisture sticks around but without 

much upper level forcing.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Coastal activity looks to have diminished, not seeing VSBY 

restrictions out of the light RA. Heavier showers are popping up 

near and west of I-95 which could impact inland terminals. Activity 

might diminish into tonight without restrictions but there is the 

chance for fog at inland terminals with some uncertainty in the 

VSBYs right now. activity should pick up again towards dawn 

Wednesday at the coast where we could see a similar pattern but 

perhaps lighter rain.



Extended Forecast...Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible 

in showers and storms for the remainder of the week. The moist low-

level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning 

stratus each day.



&&



.MARINE...

Tonight through Sunday...Sub-SCA S/SE flow continues through the 

period as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. 

Chances of showers and storms remain elevated most days, esp. during 

the night and morning hours over the waters.



&&



.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110.

SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054.

MARINE...None.



&&



$$



WHAT HAS CHANGED...ILM

KEY MESSAGES...ILM

DISCUSSION...LEW

AVIATION...LEW

MARINE...MAS