FXUS62 KGSP 201806

AFDGSP



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC

206 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

NBM continues trending lower on PoPs for Sunday. 



Confidence continues to increase regarding the potential for a few 

severe storms Monday afternoon and evening.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Dry through the weekend before daily shower and thunderstorm

chances return next week. Severe storms are possible Monday

afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main hazard.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Key message 1: Dry through the weekend before daily shower and 

thunderstorm chances return next week. Severe storms are possible 

Monday afternoon and evening with damaging winds being the main 

hazard. 



Surface high pressure remains over the Carolinas and northeast 

Georgia through the weekend keeping lower humidity and dry 

conditions around. The NBM continues to back off on PoPs Sunday 

afternoon and evening and this matches the latest CAM trends showing 

dry conditions lingering over the GSP CWA. It will be cooler today 

with highs running near normal to just below normal. Warmer and 

above normal highs return Sunday to kick off the first official day 

of summer as low-level SW'ly flow gradually strengthens ahead of an 

approaching cold front. 



The cold front approaches out of the W/NW on Monday before tracking 

across the area Monday night into Tuesday. A line of storms looks to 

develop ahead of the front Monday afternoon and evening per the 12Z 

CAMs that already go out through Monday evening. With guidance 

depicting 20-25 kts of deep layer shear in place ahead of the front 

and 1,500-2,000 J/kg of SBCAPE developing during peak heating hours, 

strong to severe storms will be possible. The Day 3 SPC Outlook 

showing a Marginal risk across the entire GSP CWA appears warranted. 

Damaging winds will be the main hazard with any severe storms that 

develop. Timing for severe on Monday looks to be from roughly 2 PM 

to 10 PM per the 12Z NAMNest but this is subject to change as the 

rest of the high-res guidance begins to fully capture the event. 

Breezy SW winds can also be expected ahead of the front on Monday, 

ranging from 20 to 30 mph (well below advisory criteria). 



A more diurnal convective pattern returns for the rest of the week 

behind the front with highs each afternoon ending up near normal to 

just above normal.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Winds 

will pick up out of the WSW/SW east of the mountains this afternoon 

while winds at KAVL remain VRB. Winds will go calm to light and VRB 

this evening into Sunday morning before picking up out of the S/SW 

by early Sunday afternoon. Cirrus will continue streaming overhead 

through late this evening before gradually thinning overnight. Thin 

cirrus will stick around through Sunday with some cumulus possibly 

developing during peak heating hours. 



Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Sunday night before shower and 

thunderstorms, as well as associated restrictions, return ahead of 

cold front Monday into Tuesday. Daily chances for showers and 

thunderstorms will continue behind the front the rest of the week.



&&



.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

NC...None.

SC...None.



&&



$$



AR