FXUS62 KCHS 050625

AFDCHS



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Charleston SC

225 AM EDT Tue May 5 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

All sections have been updated.



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.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1) A cold front will bring an increased risk for showers and

  thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Saturday.



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.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE 1: A cold front will bring an increased risk for showers 

and thunderstorms to the region Thursday into Saturday.



High pressure across the Atlantic will favor a light southerly flow 

across the Southeast United States in advance of an approaching cold 

front driven by a mid-lvl trough advancing across the Great 

Lakes/Ohio River Valley mid-week. Deep moisture (PWATs ~2.0 inches) 

is expected to advect across the local area on Thursday while warm 

conditions persist prior to the front arriving, but increasing cloud 

cover should limit instability when modest levels of shear 

associated with enhanced low-lvl wind fields arrive/develop across 

the Southeast Unites States while a strong h25 jet core passes 

inland and to the north. 



Timing of the front remains the most substantial uncertainty in 

regards to shower and thunderstorm arrival/coverage as well as the 

progression of the mid-upper lvl trough north of the region 

Thursday. Guidance remains rather split with cold fropa occurring 

between the Thursday evening through Friday morning time range, with 

the GFS remaining the faster and more progressive solution along 

with dry high pressure occurring later Friday into Saturday, while 

the ECMWF suggests a more stalling out of the front just south of 

the region as the mid-upper trough and sfc front become much more 

displaced from each other. The later solution would result in precip 

activity holding across the local area through Friday and possibly 

through much of the day on Saturday, but rainfall totals and the 

risk for flooding (low) remain relatively similar under either 

scenario. Regardless of the the outcome, the environment supports at 

least scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday and Friday 

as the front approaches and shifts across the region. Stronger 

thunderstorm chances remain low given recent trends in the guidance, 

especially if the front arrives during the night.



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.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z 

Wednesday. However, gusty south/southeast winds around 20 kt are 

anticipated at all terminals this afternoon.



Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions from showers and 

thunderstorms are possible Thursday and Friday as a cold front moves 

through the region.



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.MARINE...

Southerly flow will strengthen ahead of an approaching cold 

front Thursday. There could be period of 25 kt winds and 6 ft 

seas over portions of the Charleston nearshore waters Thursday

afternoon/evening. Small Craft Advisories may be needed.



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.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

GA...None.

SC...None.

MARINE...None.



&&



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DPB/JRL