FXUS62 KCAE 250506

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

106 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025



.SYNOPSIS...

An extended period of dry weather continues across the Midlands and 

CSRA with near to slightly below normal temperatures into

Sunday. The next chance of rain appears to hold off now until 

after sunset Sunday, with rain chances then expected on and off

each day next week.



&&



.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

Key message(s):



- Chilly start to the day and below normal temperatures during 

  the afternoon. 



- Dry weather persists.



Today starts chilly with temperatures in the low to mid 40s 

with sheltered spots in the upper 30s. Surface high pressure 

will move into the Mid Atlantic through the day today, keeping 

northeast flow and bringing cooler conditions thanks to weak 

cold advection in the 925-850mb layer. Afternoon high 

temperatures should barely break the low 70s under mostly sunny 

skies, though passing cirrus are expected as an upper low over 

the southern Pains shifts eastward. As the low continues to inch

closer, upper flow turns more southwesterly and moisture begins

to increase into Sunday morning with PWAT's gradually 

increasing above 0.50-0.75". Increased cirrus cover overnight 

should keep lows a bit higher, but still cool, in the mid to 

upper 40s.



&&



.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Key message(s):



- Dry through the day, then rain chances increase Sunday night.

- Temperatures still slightly below normal.



Low-level northeasterly wedge type flow will continue to set up

through the daytime hours as surface high pressure centered off

to our north builds southward. Aloft, an area of low pressure 

will be moving into the region from the west. The day will start

off with moisture still limited, however as the afternoon 

progresses moisture will be moving into the area ahead of the 

upper shortwave trough. This moisture will be lifted 

isentropically over top of the surface wedge, helping increase 

cloud cover through the day. By the evening, moisture will 

finally be high enough to bring rain chances back into the 

forecast area from west to east through the night. Rainfall will

start off light, and then increase in coverage and intensity 

after midnight and towards Monday morning. Temperatures are 

still expected to remain slightly below normal ahead of the 

approaching trough, with afternoon highs reaching the upper 60s.

Overnight lows will be right around normal around 50 degrees 

for most areas.



&&



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Key message(s):



- Wedge strengthens Monday with widespread rain.

- Unsettled and cooler weather through the week.



With rainfall more widespread across the area, along with 

continued northeasterly winds, the low-level wedge conditions 

should intensify through the day. The diurnal trend on Monday 

will not be too large, with afternoon highs only forecast in the

mid to possibly upper 50s. Highest confidence in rainfall 

through the period is on Monday as the upper shortwave moves 

through. Beyond that, a bit of uncertainty exists for rainfall. 

Although coverage and intensity should be less over the area, 

much of the cwa will still see measurable rainfall each day 

through the end of the week. In regards to temperatures, with 

the wedge expected to remain through at least mid-week, the 

blended guidance appears to be trending on the cooler side, with

readings ranging from the middle 50s to possibly the lower 60s.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period but with 

increasing cloud cover.



Light winds out of the northeast continue tonight with passing 

cirrus seen. These conditions continue into the morning hours 

with some locations going calm, but only very brief shallow 

river fognear AGS could be possible before daybreak (low

chances). For the rest of the TAF period, cirrus should 

continue to stream into the region with 5-8kt northeast winds 

during the afternoon before becoming light again tonight. Cloud 

cover should continue to increase at the end of the period and 

into the next TAF period. 



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread 

restrictions continues to look like Sunday into early next week 

as wedge conditions are expected to develop. This may bring low 

ceilings and potential visibility restrictions in periods of 

rain, mainly Sunday night through Monday. These potential 

restrictions may persist through at least Tuesday.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$