FXUS62 KCAE 242322 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 722 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of dry weather continues across the Midlands and CSRA with near to slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend. The next chance of rain holds off until late in the weekend, with rain chances then expected on and off each day next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Key message(s): - More chilly temperatures tonight. A rinse and repeat forecast of the last several night is on tap across the forecast area. Clear skies remain in place amidst a very dry airmass, fostering another night of cool temps. High pressure is translating eastward through the Ohio Valley and into the northeastern US, leaving us on the southern end of it. While this may promote winds not being completely calm through the night, the pressure gradient looks weak enough to allow for radiational cooling again. So bumped temps down slightly from what the NBM has, with low to mid 40s expected most places. Some upper 30s are possible in our cooler, sheltered locations. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Slightly cooler with mostly dry weather. - Rain chances increase Sunday night. Surface high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic Saturday, ridging into the forecast area with northeast surface winds and zonal flow aloft. Deep layer dry air remains in place with ensemble means showing PWATs around 0.7 inches. Highs a few degrees below average with increasing high clouds and weak cold advection with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. An upper low over the Plains will slowly shift eastward into Saturday night. Flow will shift out of the southwest as a result, moisture will rapidly increase, especially in the upper levels with increasing clouds. Lows a few degrees warmer, especially in the south but still expected to be in the 40s. Sunday, clouds will continue to increase with temperatures a degree or two cooler. Blended guidance overall keeps the area dry during the day on Sunday with weak upper ridging downstream from the upper low that will be to the west of the area. Increasing isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning with the high still centered to the northeast of the area. This will lead to developing wedge conditions with widespread rain moving into the area which will continue into next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Wedge strengthens Monday with widespread rain. - Unsettled and cooler weather through the week. With rain moving in Sunday night, cold air damming expected to develop over the area Monday morning. Multiple waves of rain possible with isentropic lift, upper forcing provided by the upper low approaching the area and LREF PWATs indicating 60-70% probability of greater than 1.25 inches. Blended guidance continues to trend higher with pops and cooler with high temperatures as much of the area will struggle to get out of the 50s, especially in the northwest portion of the forecast area. A bit of uncertainty beyond Monday with the evolution of this wedge but overall ensemble means show upper troughing persisting over the eastern US through the week, strengthening during the second half of the week. This leads to relatively high confidence in cooler temperatures this week. Overall pattern remains unsettled so while pops will be lower beyond Monday, there will be low chances for rain each day. && .AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Light and variable or calm winds overnight. When the inversion breaks around 15Z Saturday, winds are expected to be E or ENE from 5 to 10 kts through the afternoon. High clouds continueto stream over the region which, along with a dry air mass, will prevent fog overnight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...The next chance of widespread restrictions will be Sunday into early next week. Confidence is increasing in wedge conditions which typically bring low ceilings and potential visibility restrictions in rain or mist. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ S