FXUS62 KCAE 241726 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 126 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An extended period of dry weather continues across the Midlands and CSRA with near to slightly below normal temperatures into the weekend. The next chance of rain holds off until late in the weekend, with rain chances then expected on and off each day next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Key message(s): - More chilly temperatures tonight. - Very dry airmass remains. High pressure extends from the Upper Midwest through the Southeast. Expect the high pressure to remain over the area through the overnight hours. The boundary that moved through early today moves further away from the region, which shifts winds to more northeasterly this afternoon. This is helping to keep temps a bit cooler than the past couple of days. Overnight lows are also anticipated to be quite chilly, but some higher clouds may hinder how cool we get tonight. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Key message(s): - Slightly cooler with mostly dry weather. - Rain chances increase Sunday night. Surface high pressure settles over the Mid Atlantic Saturday, ridging into the forecast area with northeast surface winds and zonal flow aloft. Deep layer dry air remains in place with ensemble means showing PWATs around 0.7 inches. Highs a few degrees below average with increasing high clouds and weak cold advection with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. An upper low over the Plains will slowly shift eastward into Saturday night. Flow will shift out of the southwest as a result, moisture will rapidly increase, especially in the upper levels with increasing clouds. Lows a few degrees warmer, especially in the south but still expected to be in the 40s. Sunday, clouds will continue to increase with temperatures a degree or two cooler. Blended guidance overall keeps the area dry during the day on Sunday with weak upper ridging downstream from the upper low that will be to the west of the area. Increasing isentropic lift Sunday night into Monday morning with the high still centered to the northeast of the area. This will lead to developing wedge conditions with widespread rain moving into the area which will continue into next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Key message(s): - Wedge strengthens Monday with widespread rain. - Unsettled and cooler weather through the week. With rain moving in Sunday night, cold air damming expected to develop over the area Monday morning. Multiple waves of rain possible with isentropic lift, upper forcing provided by the upper low approaching the area and LREF PWATs indicating 60-70% probability of greater than 1.25 inches. Blended guidance continues to trend higher with pops and cooler with high temperatures as much of the area will struggle to get out of the 50s, especially in the northwest portion of the forecast area. A bit of uncertainty beyond Monday with the evolution of this wedge but overall ensemble means show upper troughing persisting over the eastern US through the week, strengthening during the second half of the week. This leads to relatively high confidence in cooler temperatures this week. Overall pattern remains unsettled so while pops will be lower beyond Monday, there will be low chances for rain each day. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period as dry conditions persist. North to northeast winds in the 5-10 kt range continue through the afternoon before becoming light and variable to calm overnight. Winds are expected to be more easterly after about 15z, increasing to about 7-10 kts once again. Generally clear skies to start the TAF period with some high clouds streaming into the area this evening into tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Widespread restrictions continue to not be anticipated through at least Saturday with the dry airmass in place. Moisture and rain chances increase Sunday, continuing into the early week, where a greater chance for associated restrictions will be possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$