FXUS62 KCAE 211039 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 639 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Above average temperatures and increased chances for showers and storms continue through Tuesday. - 2. Rain expected on Wednesday, with cooler and drier conditions likely by late week and next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Above average temperatures and increased chances for showers and storms continue through Tuesday. The overall pattern begins to shift early this week, as the dominant ridging that has prevailed gradually breaks down and gives way to troughing by midweek. In the meantime, today will remain seasonably hot and humid, with Tuesday likely to continue running above average as highs reach the low to mid 90s. A few pop- up showers could develop later this afternoon, with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to become more widespread Tuesday. Coverage should increase through Tuesday afternoon and evening as forcing improves, with a strong surface high building across southeastern Canada helping to drive a backdoor front southward into the area into Wednesday. This will mark the beginning of a transition toward a cooler and drier pattern by mid to late week. KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain expected on Wednesday, with cooler and drier conditions likely by late week and next weekend. Ensemble and operational guidance are finally showing a favorable pattern for more reasonable, fall-like temperatures across our area beginning Wednesday. Some uncertainty remains as a blocking pattern across the northern Plains shifts eastward. Pattern changes of this magnitude often produce uncertainty regarding the eventual placement and evolution of the upper- level and surface lows. Regardless, guidance increasingly supports the development of a wedge behind the front sometime Wednesday. The NAM remains the most aggressive, bringing the front south of the area by Wednesday afternoon. This scenario appears somewhat unlikely at this time, but there remains a relatively high bust potential for temperatures Wednesday afternoon as the exact position and timing of the front will have a significant impact on temperatures across the area. Beyond that, the forecast increasingly trends toward more pleasant conditions. Guidance is in good agreement that deep troughing will become established across the eastern CONUS, resulting in northwesterly flow and dry air across the region from Thursday into the weekend. Highs should generally fall into the upper 70s and low 80s, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overall, this should provide our first real taste of fall with a refreshing change in temperatures arriving just as astronomical autumn begins on Tuesday! && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Patchy fg and areas of br possible this morning. Satellite continues to show thin cirrus across the majority of the area, along with some developing lower visibilities and ceiling restrictions in areas that have cleared out more this morning. Appears to be a higher likelihood of IFR restrictions at fog prone AGS, OGB, and even AIK. MVFR visibility restrictions are more likely at the other sites. Have continued the TEMPO groups at all sites, but extended it through 14z. Restrictions should lift by 14 or 15Z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible again during the afternoon, however coverage is expected to be too low to be included in the TAFs at this time. Late tonight and into Tuesday morning, another round of visibility and ceiling restrictions will remain possible at all sites. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Rain chances and widespread restrictions are most likely Tuesday through Thursday as moisture advection increases and wedge conditions develop. Seasonal, early morning cig/vis restrictions will remain possible early this week. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ AVIATION...73