FXUS62 KCAE 202335

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

735 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Updated 00z aviation discussion.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

- 1. Isolated showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon and

  evening. Marginal risk of severe storms in the northern area.



- 2. Well above average temperatures expected to continue 

  through Monday before a front moves in next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated showers and storms develop tomorrow 

afternoon and evening. Marginal risk of severe storms in the 

northern area.



Surface high pressure expected to shift southward through the day 

today with upper ridging generally hanging on. Increasing 

southwesterly to westerly low level flow will lead to increasing 

moisture into tomorrow with the HREF mean indicating by the 

afternoon, PWATs will rise to above an inch. A shortwave will move 

into the southern Appalachians tomorrow which has trended a bit 

deeper over the last couple days. This will lead for the potential 

for isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow mid 

afternoon into evening with hires guidance generally favoring the 

northern portion of the forecast area. SPC has highlighted this

area in a marginal severe risk. While the highest mid-level 

lapse rates (greater than 7C/km) may remain northwest of our 

area, wet bulb zero heights around 9kft, deep layer shear near 

30 knots, and high HREF probability of sbCAPE greater than 500 

J/kg (around 70-80%), there remains the potential for storms to 

produce hail, with a ceiling of around up to a quarter sized in 

the strongest storms. With strong low level lapse rates likely 

and relatively high DCAPE indicated by hires guidance, also 

remains possible that strongest storms produce isolated damaging

wind gusts. Convective activity will diminish overnight, 

although may linger after sunrise with the forcing provided by 

the shortwave. 



KEY MESSAGE 2: Well above average temperatures expected to continue 

through Monday before a front moves in next week.



Very little change in the overall temperature forecast for this

weekend with high confidence in the well above average

temperatures as upper ridging strengthens over the area. NAEFS

mean continues to indicate 850mb temperatures rise to above the

97.5th or 99th percentile. While not expected to reach daily

records through Monday, blended guidance indicates highs will be

15 to 20 degrees above seasonal average, generally in the mid to

upper 80s. Front will likely move in late Monday, leading to

temperatures closer to seasonal average for the middle of next

week, although not a particularly cold air mass is expected

behind the front with frost or freeze not expected through the

end of next week.



&&



.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

Wind Shear Potential Tonight at CAE/CUB....



SCT to BKN high level cloudiness continues to move across the

forecast area this evening as surface winds begin to relax. The

primary risk tonight will be the potential for wind shear,

especially at CAE/CUB where it has been introduced to the

forecast due to a forecast 35 knot low-level jet. The jet is

slightly weaker elsewhere therefore low-level wind shear is not

mentioned at OGB/AGS/DNL at this time. With the passing cloud 

cover, and dry air at the surface, fog is not expected tonight 

but is a non-zero threat for TAF sites near bodies of water. 



For Saturday, a slight increase in moisture combined with a 

weak upper level disturbance will cause a few more clouds in the

afternoon. The latest model guidance shows showers and

thunderstorms developing in Upstate South Carolina, perhaps

moving towards CAE/CUB near the end of the current TAF period.

Given the slated arrival, will omit any mention of restrictions

due to showers and thunderstormsfrom the forecasts for now.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... A more significant cold front will

move through on Monday, with a slightly better chance for 

restrictions. Overall, conditions will be most likely VFR for 

the next several days.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...EC

AVIATION...7