FXUS62 KCAE 201811 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 211 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Marginal risk of severe weather introduced for the northern area tomorrow. Isolated storms may produce marginally severe hail or damaging wind gusts. Updated 18z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Isolated showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. Marginal risk of severe storms in the northern area. - 2. Well above average temperatures expected to continue through Monday before a front moves in next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Isolated showers and storms develop tomorrow afternoon and evening. Marginal risk of severe storms in the northern area. Surface high pressure expected to shift southward through the day today with upper ridging generally hanging on. Increasing southwesterly to westerly low level flow will lead to increasing moisture into tomorrow with the HREF mean indicating by the afternoon, PWATs will rise to above an inch. A shortwave will move into the southern Appalachians tomorrow which has trended a bit deeper over the last couple days. This will lead for the potential for isolated coverage of showers and thunderstorms tomorrow mid afternoon into evening with hires guidance generally favoring the northern portion of the forecast area. SPC has highlighted this area in a marginal severe risk. While the highest mid-level lapse rates (greater than 7C/km) may remain northwest of our area, wet bulb zero heights around 9kft, deep layer shear near 30 knots, and high HREF probability of sbCAPE greater than 500 J/kg (around 70-80%), there remains the potential for storms to produce hail, with a ceiling of around up to a quarter sized in the strongest storms. With strong low level lapse rates likely and relatively high DCAPE indicated by hires guidance, also remains possible that strongest storms produce isolated damaging wind gusts. Convective activity will diminish overnight, although may linger after sunrise with the forcing provided by the shortwave. KEY MESSAGE 2: Well above average temperatures expected to continue through Monday before a front moves in next week. Very little change in the overall temperature forecast for this weekend with high confidence in the well above average temperatures as upper ridging strengthens over the area. NAEFS mean continues to indicate 850mb temperatures rise to above the 97.5th or 99th percentile. While not expected to reach daily records through Monday, blended guidance indicates highs will be 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal average, generally in the mid to upper 80s. Front will likely move in late Monday, leading to temperatures closer to seasonal average for the middle of next week, although not a particularly cold air mass is expected behind the front with frost or freeze not expected through the end of next week. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Mainly VFR conditions today and tonight. A bit of ground fog has developed at OGB this morning despite the relatively dry air in place. The ground fog should dissipate quickly after sunrise. Otherwise, light winds will become southwesterly at less than 10 knots as the surface high sags a bit southward. Any clouds over the next 24 hours should be of the thin cirrus variety and not cause any impacts at the terminals. If winds decouple late tonight at OGB or AGS, there might be some patchy ground fog again, but there will be light southwest winds that should keep most places mixed enough to avoid that problem. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... On Saturday, a slight increase in moisture combined with a weak upper level disturbance will cause a few more clouds in the afternoon, with possibly an isolated showers or thunderstorm, but chances remain lowfor any impact at the terminals. A more significant cold front will move through on Monday, with a slightly better chance for restrictions. Overall, conditions will be most likely VFR for the next several days. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...CAL