FXUS62 KCAE 200416 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 1216 AM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated 06Z aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week. Strong ridging is currently in place over the Southwest. A remarkably large footprint of EFI greater than 0.99 for max temperatures for much of the CONUS west of the Rockies. As this ridge slowly shifts to the east, a warming trend will continue over the forecast area with above average temperatures by tomorrow, continuing into early next week. NAEFS mean has trended a bit higher with 850mb temperatures by this weekend, once again above the 90th percentile. This will lead to high confidence of well above average temperatures this weekend with highs in the low to mid 80s Saturday to mid to upper 80s Sunday. Surface high pressure expected to shift south of the area which along with a low passing to the north will lead to increasing low level moisture. Some weakness in the ridge, generally over the northern portion of the forecast area could lead to an isolated shower this weekend but blended guidance keeps pops around 10 percent. Guidance has generally trended slower with a front early next week as the associated trough begins to dig south a bit later and farther east. This has led to more confidence in temperatures Monday remaining well above average with blended guidance also trending drier with the front itself with slight chance of rain showers or possibly an isolated storm Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR conditions through today and into tonight. A reactively dry air mass will continue over the area for the next 24 hours, with only some occasional high clouds passing overhead at the terminals. Near calm winds for the remainder of the pre dawn hours will eventually switch to southwesterly during the day as the high pressure ridge at the surface will drift slightly southward, but speeds will be less than 10 knots. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... On Saturday, a slight increase in moisture combined with a weak upper level disturbance will cause a few more clouds in the afternoon, with possibly an isolated showers or thunderstorm, but chances remain low for any impact at the terminals. A more significant cold front will move through on Monday, with a slightly better chance for restrictions. Overall, conditions will be most likely VFR for the next several days. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...FA