FXUS62 KCAE 191534

AFDCAE



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Columbia SC

1134 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Removed mention of frost this morning as temperatures have

warmed.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...



- 1. Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold 

  front moves in early next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



KEY MESSAGE 1: Significant warming trend into this weekend 

before a cold front moves in early next week.



The main story the remainder of the forecast period is 

significant warming. A robust upper ridge is situated across the

western CONUS and 500 mb heights with this ridge are at the 

NAEFS climatological maximum. There is good model consensus that

as troughing exits the Eastern US, this ridge will shift 

eastward, with low level flow turning increasingly 

southwesterly. This should bring temperatures back into the 70s 

by Friday and into the 80s by Saturday before temperatures 10-15

degrees above normal will be possible Sunday. This comes as 850

mb temperatures reach the NAEFS 90th percentile by Saturday, 

but near the 97th and 99th percentile Sunday and into Monday. 

Moisture will be increasing through the period with both GEFS 

and EC Ensemble mean PWAT's reaching near 150% of normal 

Saturday and into the early week, where a weak cold front may 

move into the area toward Monday. There remains uncertainty in 

the timing of this front as seen in the most recent LREF 

clusters where one favors the front moving in during the 

morning, two favor it moving in toward the late morning and 

early afternoon, and the last cluster does not have it moving 

through until Monday evening. Due to this, a a 6-8 degree IQR 

range still exists for temperatures Monday (though this is 

improved from previous forecasts). The differences in timing 

also bring into question precip chances with this front, but at 

this time at least slight chance PoP's seem reasonable.



&&



.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

VFR conditions through tonight.



Area of mid to high clouds associated with an upper level jet

streak has moved overhead this morning, and will likely be with

us into the afternoon. Skies will be broken at times, but cigs

will be 12K feet or higher, so no problem at the terminals

expected. Winds will continue on the light side (< 5 knots) with

surface ridge located right over the terminals.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Similarly tranquil weather is 

expected at the terminals on Friday. As moisture increases over 

the weekend, there is a slightly better chance of morning 

stratus and fog, as well as widely scattered afternoon showers, 

but but chances for restrictions are still not too high. A cold 

front will approach from the north on Monday, increasing the 

chances for some clouds and showers.



&&



.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SC...None.

GA...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...DH/CRL

AVIATION...FA