FXUS62 KCAE 190623 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 223 AM EDT Thu Mar 19 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning until 9 AM. Increasing confidence in significant warming trend into this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s possible as clearing skies taking place. - 2. Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Frost Advisory remains in effect this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s possible as clearing skies taking place. Satellite imagery early this morning is showing clearing skies across the region and due to this, along with near calm winds, temperatures quickly fell over the last 2-4 hours in the northern FA toward the mid to upper 30s. This trend is expected to continue over the coming hours across the FA with temperatures bottoming out in the low to mid 30s. Surface dewpoints have also recovered nicely since this afternoon, toward the lower 30s, bringing the potential for areas of frost across the FA this morning. With these conditions, the Frost Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM across the whole FA, though it cannot be ruled out a couple spots settle right around freezing. The only complicating factor is some cirrus is seen entering back toward Kentucky and northern Tennessee, that will eventually work into the area this morning. At this time, these clouds are not expected to move in for another 3-6 hours, giving sufficient time for temperatures to drop amid these near ideal radiational cooling conditions. KEY MESSAGE 2: Significant warming trend into this weekend before a cold front moves in early next week. The main story the remainder of the forecast period is significant warming. A robust upper ridge is situated across the western CONUS and 500 mb heights with this ridge are at the NAEFS climatological maximum. There is good model consensus that as troughing exits the Eastern US, this ridge will shift eastward, with low level flow turning increasingly southwesterly. This should bring temperatures back into the 70s by Friday and into the 80s by Saturday before temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal will be possible Sunday. This comes as 850 mb temperatures reach the NAEFS 90th percentile by Saturday, but near the 97th and 99th percentile Sunday and into Monday. Moisture will be increasing through the period with both GEFS and EC Ensemble mean PWAT's reaching near 150% of normal Saturday and into the early week, where a weak cold front may move into the area toward Monday. There remains uncertainty in the timing of this front as seen in the most recent LREF clusters where one favors the front moving in during the morning, two favor it moving in toward the late morning and early afternoon, and the last cluster does not have it moving through until Monday evening. Due to this, a a 6-8 degree IQR range still exists for temperatures Monday (though this is improved from previous forecasts). The differences in timing also bring into question precip chances with this front, but at this time at least slight chance PoP's seem reasonable. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... VFR conditions through today into tonight. With narrow surface ridge parked overhead, light and variable winds will rule the TAFs today. A batch of mid to high clouds will pass through as a jet streak moves in from the northwest on the backside of the deep trough along the Atlantic seaboard, but will cause no issues at the terminals. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Similarly tranquil weather is expected at the terminals on Friday. As moisture increases over the weekend, there is a slightly better chance of morning stratus and fog, as well as widely scattered afternoon showers, but but chances for restrictions are still not too high. A cold front will approach from the north on Monday, increasing the chances for some clouds and showers. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ016-018- 020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for GAZ040-063>065- 077. && $$ DISCUSSION...DH AVIATION...FA