FXUS62 KCAE 041809 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 209 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Key Messages remain the same. Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1. Chances for showers and storms continue each day this week as temperatures hover around average. A couple strong to marginally severe storms possible today. && .DISCUSSION... - 1. Chances for showers and storms continue each day this week as temperatures hover around average. A couple strong to marginally severe storms possible today. An anomalous, closed 500 hPa low is located across north GA early this afternoon. This feature, along with copious PWs, has been driving our persistent showers and thunderstorms the last several days. Convection is already beginning to get going right now to our north and west, with more convection expected to develop across our area through the afternoon. Today's setup is quite interesting and favorable for several marginally severe thunderstorms, with severe downbursts expected. The setup for today (per RAP forecast soundings) is actually quite reminiscent of some of our better pulse severe thunderstorm days - but we have focused forcing. by mid afternoon, we're expecting >2000 j/kg of SCAPE, ~900 j/kg of DCAPE, >30 TEI, and 40-45 knots of 8km shear. With the highest PW plume now to our east, a fairly low RH layer has develop between 700 hPa and 300 hPa atop a very moisture rich boundary layer. The combination of these things, especially the presence of some shear in the 8km layer, leads me to believe that several severe thunderstorms may actually develop this afternoon. Time will tell but don't be surprised if we issue some warnings this afternoon. Beyond today, we are forecast to gradually see rising heights and rising afternoon highs through much of the period. Ensemble guidance is fairly confident in the 500 hPa height pattern & PWs through the period, with LREF members showing very little in the way of IQR spread through the end of the week for both features. While the trough is expected to fill and weaken quickly over the next couple of days, the presence of 1.8"-2.0" PWs should continue to favor daily thunderstorm activity. Convective temps look to be anywhere from 88F to 93F each day this week which is forecast to be reached fairly easily. So oppressive humidity, slightly above normal temps in the mid 90s, and diurnal thunderstorm activity is likely to be the norm by the second half of this week and into the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... VFR this afternoon with occasional restrictions due to -SHRA/-TSRA. CIG restrictions possible tonight, but lower confidence compared to the past few days. Mostly VFR across the region early this afternoon. Surface winds will continue to be southeast at 5-10 kts. With weak moisture convergence over the area, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the next several hours. Coverage should support PROB30 groups for thunderstorms into early this evening, similar to previous days. The stronger storms could produce heavy rain and brief CIG/VSBY restrictions along with gusty winds of 25-30 kts. Convection should decrease late this evening. As for tonight, models continue to be less aggressive compared to the past few nights regarding restrictions, but if conditions don't change much over the next 12 hours, then confidence is increased for another round of CIG/VSBY reductions early Wednesday morning. These should dissipate a few hours after sunrise, with a scattered cu deck developing along with a light south to southeast wind. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Diurnal thunderstorms expected this week with early morning restrictions possible. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PL AVIATION...EC