FXUS62 KCAE 040022 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 722 PM EST Tue Feb 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Updated Aviation Discussion, with some slight adjustments to Key message 1. Overall, the forecast remains on track! && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Cold front brings widespread rain to the area Wednesday morning, continuing through much of the day. - 2) Temperatures near to slightly below average through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE #1: Cold front brings widespread rain to the area Wednesday morning, continuing through much of the day. A cold front that is currently moving through the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to approach the forecast area. Surface high pressure over the area will shift offshore with increasing southwesterly flow leading to warm advection and increasing moisture with HREF mean indicating PWATs rise to 0.9-1 inch. This will lead to widespread rain developing across the area Wednesday morning. As an upper trough digs deeper over the Mississippi Valley during the day Wednesday, this will reinforce deep southwesterly flow aloft and cause the front to slow over the area. As a result, periods of rain will continue through much of the day for the area before the front clears, likely Wednesday night. Totals will be beneficial, with HREF/REFS guidance showing generally 0.5"-1.0" across the area. There is some indication amongst guidance of a more focused area of rainfall where probabilities of 1"+ of rainfall increase but the location of that varies amongst hi-res ensembles. Drier air expected to move in aloft Wednesday night and while the upper trough may lead to some lingering precipitation, it is expected to taper off and become light. A note that while some model guidance is indicating frozen precipitation at the end of this period, with moisture so shallow it is unlikely that there would be ice the cloud. While cannot rule out a brief period of freezing drizzle along the northernmost portion of the forecast area, impacts would be limited with temperatures above freezing until a short period just before sunrise Thursday. KEY MESSAGE #2: Temperatures near to slightly below average through the weekend. Overall expect temperatures to be near average through much of the period, quite the change from the significant cold spell for the Midlands and CSRA over the last week or so. The exception will be behind the front Thursday which likely be colder with an upper trough over the forecast area, with NAEFS mean indicating 500mb heights will be below the climatological 10th percentile. Upper ridging late this week into the weekend will begin to build over the central US with blended guidance favoring a quick return to near average temperatures. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions continue this evening, but restrictions move in overnight and for the remainder of the TAF period as the next system moves in with rain chances. Not much has changed with the aviation outlook through tonight and into Wednesday. Cirrus continue to stream through the region but increasing low/mid level moisture is evident just west of the area with a deck around 4500 to 8000 ft developing over parts of GA. Overnight, this deck fill in after 03-06z with increasing low clouds by early Wednesday morning where periods of MVFR ceilings could be possible after 09z. There should be another 30-35 kt low level jet tonight, but southerly surface winds should remain elevated enough to keep mention of LLWS out of the TAF. After 09-11z, rain chances should fill in at the Augusta and Columbia terminals first before spreading toward OGB. As rain moves in, IFR ceilings should fill in with both ceiling and visibility restrictions likely remaining the rest of the TAF period asthis system works through the region. Winds generally stay out of the south Wednesday, up to 7-9 kts. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions likely continue through late Wednesday night before the cold front moves through and drier air moves in for Thursday. Returning dry air should bring low chances for restrictions Thursday and into this weekend. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...None. GA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...17