FXUS62 KCAE 021154 AFDCAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Columbia SC 654 AM EST Mon Feb 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Aviation Update && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Lows in the teens tonight will cause patchy black ice. - 2) Rain chances ramp up mid week ahead of a cold front. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE #1: Lows in the teens tonight will cause patchy black ice. Clear skies and diminishing winds will lead to to strong radiational cooling this morning. Cooling is expected to be enhanced by the residual snow pack which did not melt yesterday, particularly in the northern Midlands. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect as temperatures are expected to drop into the teens and possibly single digits in the northern areas. Any lingering snow or liquid on roadways will refreeze in spots which may create hazardous travel conditions. There may be patchy freezing fog that develops this morning but with dewpoints in the low to mid teens this is a very uncommon scenario for the area so confidence is low. KEY MESSAGE #2: Rain chances ramp up mid week ahead of a cold front. Not much change to the forecast for the mid-week system expected to bring rain to the region. LREF cluster analysis shows little variability between global ensemble members so forecast confidence remains stable. As surface low pressure develops in the Southeast we will see rain spread into the region from Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Instability is weak and elevated in even the most aggressive models so the threat of severe weather is minimal. Cold air moves in behind the system favoring below normal temperatures. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR Conditions Continue.... Skies are clear across the terminals at daybreak. Will continue to monitor trends for low end freezing fog possibilities but the current dewpoint depressions remain large so development is unlikely. Mainly clear skies are expected on Monday with west to southwest winds at the surface, becoming light and variable tonight. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR conditions are expected through at least the first half of the week. Another system and front moving into the area during mid-week could bring restrictions back to the region. && .CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ016- 018-020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137. GA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ040- 063>065-077. && $$ DISCUSSION...CJR AVIATION...07