FXUS61 KRNK 211052

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

652 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

No major changes to the forecast, just removing thunder from

Wed-Thu for most of the area with a strong wedge and changing

from showers to rain.



Aviation updated.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a front 

meanders around the area. Turning cooler midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Unsettled weather expected through midweek as a 

front meanders around the area. Turning noticeably cooler by 

Wednesday.



Looking at frontal boundary across our area today, with several

vorts moving along it aloft and should see a decent shot of

showers/storms by late this afternoon and especially tonight

into Tuesday. The front drops south Tuesday into Wednesday 

while we get wedged in.



Today will be the last warm day, and depending on how much

sunshine we get, could see some stronger storms develop, but

again looks isolated. As far as heavy rain/localized flooding,

there will be a potential for that, with the 00z HREF

probabilities for more than 3" rain in 12 hrs highlighting the

Piedmont of NC tonight. Still models/ensembles are blotchy with

this coverage and not seeing a need for any flood watches.



As we head into Tuesday, will have to watch where the heavy rain

occurs today-tonight, and whether we may need flood watches. 



The bigger story will be the significant cool down with 

potential to remain stuck in the 50s and 60s Wednesday and 

Thursday. Cold air advection is expected to persist for multiple

days so it may take until the weekend to return to readings near

normal.



&&



.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Look for mainly VFR starting this morning except some LIFR to

IFR conditions at LWB. A few showers may sneak into LWB through

14z. Better coverage of showers/storms arrives this afternoon

but again still looking at scattered so VCTS in tafs with mainly

VFR. This evening coverage of rain increases with frontal

boundary draped across the area. Expect the 00z-06z time frame

to be the rainiest especially along east of the BCB/ROA line.

Should have IFR or lower conditions during the night so not a

good night to fly and this will be the case into 12z Tuesday. 



Forecast confidence is moderate, but lower on thunderstorm

timing Monday.



EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



Rain chances are high for Tuesday as well, with numerous to 

widespread coverage. During this time expect periods of sub-VFR 

conditions and potential heavy rain. Fog at night can also be 

expected, especially in the mountain valleys. 



For the latter half of the week, gusty north winds are expected

per forecast of strong cyclone developing off the New England 

Coast. Depending on location of this system will determine if we

clear out by Friday but looks like we will, with poor flying

weather Wed-Thu.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...PM/WP

AVIATION...AS/PM/WP