FXUS61 KRNK 201847

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

247 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...

Aviation update. No major changes to the forecast into next

week.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Tranquil weather is forecasted to persist through Sunday

evening.



2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecasted for 

Monday, some of which may produce damaging wind gusts and 

localized flash flooding. This will be followed by widely 

scattered afternoon & evening storms through the remainder of 

the week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Tranquil weather this weekend.



The remainder of this week is forecast to remain mainly dry,

though a modest chance remains of a few brief showers 

passing north of Interstate 64 (west of Lexington) late this

evening as a weak disturbance passes to the north. Dry

conditions will continue through Sunday as well.



Afternoon temperatures for Sunday will be anywhere from 3 to 6

degrees above normal for the 2nd half of June, with highs

reaching into the upper 80s to low 90s across the Piedmont.

Those spending extended periods of time outdoors will want to

have cool non-alcoholic fluids to drink, and take occasional

breaks in the shade.



The summer solstice will occur tonight, June 21 at 424 AM EDT.





KEY MESSAGE 2: Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

forecasted for Monday, some of which may produce damaging wind 

gusts and localized flash flooding. This will be followed by 

widely scattered afternoon & evening storms through the 

remainder of the week.



Will be keeping an eye on a strong upper level disturbance 

passing east along the Ohio River Valley on Monday. With cool 

high pressure pushing off the Atlantic coast, we can expect a 

return of deep moisture in advance of the approaching 

disturbance such that precipitable water values will rise into 

the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range by Monday afternoon. Given another day

of strong heating to add fuel to any thunderstorm activity, the

potential exists for any storms that develop to become capable 

of producing damaging wind gusts and heavy downpours that could 

result in localized flash flooding, especially where storms are 

slow-moving and/or pass repeatedly over the same locations. 

Believe that coverage of thunderstorms will be widely scattered 

and will occur mainly during the afternoon and evening. 

Confidence is low as to where any severe weather may occur, with

anywhere in the lower Mid-Atlantic susceptible to this 

activity. 



Afterwards, a quasi-zonal upper level flow pattern will be in 

place across the country. A lingering frontal boundary draped 

across the Mid-South to the central Plains, coupled with some 

shortwave energy aloft, will fuel the development of multiple 

thunderstorm complexes buy most of this falls south of our area.

Still at times, we will see widely scattered afternoon/evening

showers/storms.



Temps through the period will be close to late June standards.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

VFR conditions are forecasted to persist through the TAF period

for most, with the potential for patchy fog to develop for LWB.

Winds will remain out of the west/northwest for most through 

today with gusts in the 15kt to 20kt range. Gusts will subside 

by 00Z, with light winds expected overnight.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... 



Mainly VFR conditions are expected into late Sunday. Shower and

storm chances increase on Monday, with associated sub-VFR 

conditions probable as this activity passes over airports. Still

some scattered storm activity Tuesday and Wednesday but mainly 

VFR outside any storms.



Other sub-VFR possibilities may be some late night/early morning 

mountain valley/river fog Sunday morning and again middle of

next week.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...NF/PM

AVIATION...NF/WP