FXUS61 KRNK 201750

AFDRNK



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Blacksburg VA

150 PM EDT Fri Mar 20 2026



.WHAT HAS CHANGED...



A few showers and an isolated thunderstorm possible, mainly 

across the mountains through early tonight. 



This weekend continues to trend warmer ahead of an approaching

frontal system on Monday.



A series of fronts to impact the region through next week. Each

front featuring a warming trend ahead of it, then a subsequent

cool down behind the front. Rain possible with each frontal

passage.



&&



.KEY MESSAGES...

1) Warm weather will continue into the weekend.



2) A passing disturbance will bring some showers and a rumble or

two of thunder this evening/tonight.



3) Chances of rain showers will occur on Monday, Wednesday, and

Friday due to weak frontal passages.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Warm weather will continue into the weekend.



Heights will continue to build over the region as the upper

ridge over the southern Plains region continues to strengthen. 

Flow will increase from the southwest through the weekend as a 

weak upper wave moving across the northern states eventually 

amplifies by early Monday. This will result in a weak surface 

low tracking into New England and a resultant frontal boundary 

draped from Pennsylvania to Missouri. Continued warm air 

advection will occur ahead of the front. This will result in 

well above normal temperatures for Saturday and Sunday...with 

the latter day being the warmest. Mid 80s possible east of the

mountains with widespread upper 70s to lower 80s for the

mountains.





KEY MESSAGE 2: A passing 

disturbance will bring some showers and a rumble or two of 

thunder this evening/tonight.



Overall upper pattern still featuring a broad trough over the 

eastern CONUS. A weak wave embedded within the flow will pass 

over the region later this evening and tonight. Moisture fetch 

is limited, but with daytime heating, and a favorable upper wave

passage, some convective elements to the showers are possible. 

This could result in isolated instances of thunder across the 

western portions of the forecast area through early tonight.

Not expecting too much other than some sprinkles/light showers

east of the mountains. Rain amounts one tenth of an inch or

less.



KEY MESSAGE 3: Chances of rain showers will occur on Monday, Wednesday,

and Friday due to weak frontal passages.



A progressive weather pattern is set to steer a series of cold 

fronts across the region throughout the upcoming week, starting 

Monday. Due to the rapid pace of these systems, the atmosphere will 

have little time to recover its moisture between passages, likely 

limiting rainfall with each front to a modest tenth to two-tenths of 

an inch. While there is high confidence in frontal passages 

occurring on both Monday and Friday, forecast models diverge 

regarding the midweek outlook for Wednesday.



The ECMWF suggests a mostly dry frontal passage on Wednesday, 

keeping the area clear of significant precipitation. In contrast, 

the GFS identifies a shortwave tracking directly over the region, 

which could introduce light rain from Wednesday afternoon through 

Thursday morning. Regardless of which model prevails, temperatures 

are expected to remain sufficiently warm to ensure that any 

precipitation falls exclusively as rain.



&&



.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...



VFR conditions should be the predominate category throughout 

the 24hr TAF period. Weak disturbance moving across the region 

this evening/overnight will bring increasing cloud cover 

areawide and occasional rain showers to the mountains. Moisture

limited, so not expecting any cig restrictions with most 

remaining BKN/OVC and above 4kft. A few heavier showers 

possible at BLF/LWB after 00z/8PM tonight through about 

midnight.Rain should be exiting by daybreak on Saturday, giving way to

clearing skies and dry conditions.





EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...



Expect the weekend to be VFR with

relatively light WSW winds. A frontal system will drop in from

the north Sunday night into Monday, bringing another chance for

rain and sub-VFR conditions mainly to the mountains. Expect

gusty NW winds Monday behind the front, with gusts between 

20-30 kts throughout the area. Drier weather returns Tuesday and 

Wednesday.



&&



.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

VA...None.

NC...None.

WV...None.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION...BMG/RCS

AVIATION...BMG